CHM Blog

Another quiet start this morning after very little movement yesterday. At 9 am ET the 10 year note -2 bps, 5.5 FNMA coupon +3 bps. Yesterday featured a few Fed officials, some wanting more cuts while others thought rates are about right: generally ignored by markets.

This morning the Q2 current account thought to be -$302.0B was -$251.3B and Q1 revised from -$450.2B to -$439.8B. Nice to see the account deficit less than forecasts but not a market-mover.

Jerome Powell scheduled to speak at 12:30 pm at the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce 2025 Economic Outlook luncheon. Not looking for anything new after the FOMC and his press conference last week.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +86, NASDAQ -14, S&P unchanged. the 10 year at 9:30 am 4.13% -2 bps. FNMA 5.5 30 year FNMA coupon +3 bps from yesterday’s close and -10 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.

At 9:45 am September preliminary manufacturing and service sector indexes; manufacturing expected at 52, reported at 52; service sector thought to be 53.5 reported at 53.9. The composite index at 53.6 from 54.6 in August.

At 10 am September Richmond Fed manufacturing index, expected at -10 from -7 in August, the index fell to -17.

At 1 pm Treasury will sell $69B of 2 year notes, recent 2 year auctions have met with strong demand.

Traders anticipating Friday’s PCE inflation data and Thursday’s weekly jobless claims, in the meantime there isn’t much economic data that will have impact.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.14% +1 bp

5 year note: 3.70% -1 bp

2 year note: 3.60% -1 bp

30 year bond: 4.76% unch

30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.94 +3 bp (-10 bps from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 102.18 unch (-10 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.77 +1 bp (-12 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 147.87 +0.15 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1788 -$0.0016

Dollar Index: 97.36 +0.02

Gold: $3,817.80 +$42.70

Bitcoin: 112,937 +738

Crude Oil: $63.09 +$0.81

DJIA: 46,684 +303

NASDAQ: 22,703 -86

S&P 500: 6696 +2

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

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MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.