October 9th, 2025 1:58 PM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
The shut down marches on for the ninth day. Markets began unchanged this morning after not much change all week.
The minutes for the Fed’s September meeting was released yesterday afternoon. It pointed to a central bank still concerned about elevated inflation but willing to cut its rates after a softening labor market shifted the balance of risks. The FOMC meets again on October 28th and 29th, markets still looking for another rate cut but less sure without labor data.
The ECB met today holding rates steady after months of cutting. Several members viewed inflation risks as tilted to the downside and a few saw them as tilted to the upside. Between June 2024 and June 2025, the ECB cut borrowing costs by 200 bps.
At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +53, NASDAQ +4, S&P +8. 10 year 4.14% +2 bps. FNMA 5.5 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -3 bps from yesterday’s close and -13 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.
At 1 pm Treasury will auction $22B of 30 year bonds, yesterday’s 10 year auction was soft.
The federal budget deficit was $1.8 trillion in fiscal year 2025, the Congressional Budget Office estimates, $8B less than the shortfall recorded during fiscal year 2024. Revenues increased by an estimated $308B (or 6 percent); increases in collections of individual income taxes and customs duties were partially offset by a decline in corporate tax receipts. Outlays rose by an estimated $301B (or 4 percent). Outlays were higher in several areas, including the largest benefit programs and net interest on the public debt (which, for the first time, surpassed $1 trillion). Decreases in outlays recorded for federal student loan programs, deposit insurance, and by the Small Business Administration partly offset those increases.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.14% +2 bp
5 year note: 3.74% +1 bp
2 year note: 3.60% +1 bp
30 year bond: 4.73% +2 bp
30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100 ,86 -3 bp (-13 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 102.18 -2 bp (-2 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.82 +3 bp (+4 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 152.86 +0.16 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1602 -$0.0029
Dollar Index: 99.12 +0.20
Gold: $4,045.70 -$24.80
Bitcoin: 123,041 -452
Crude Oil: $62.54 unch
DJIA: 46,439 -162
NASDAQ: 23,008 -35
S&P 500: 6739 -15
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.