CHM Blog

Homeowners who outlasted three recessions are set to cash in bigtime

Just because you thought you knew everything there was to know about selling your house even five years ago doesn’t mean the market is the same place it used to be.

Homeowners are finding today’s market is vastly different from the one they last sold in. But that’s not necessarily a bad thing if it’s approached with the right expectations, according to Realtor.com’s Hannah Jones. “Longtime owners have built substantial equity, and with new tools, next spring could be an opportune moment to sell despite a shifting market, especially if the preparations start now,” she explains.

An interesting statistic, and something new to the real estate landscape? Nearly half (45.2%) of today’s homeowners have lived in their homes for more than 15 years, and 1 in 4 for more than 25 years. Age 65+ homeowners take the cake on this, with about 70% of these households having moved in before 2009 and roughly half of these becoming homeowners before the new millennium began. In other words, the typical 65-plus homeowner has lived in their home for more than a quarter-century.

During that time existing-home sales prices have tripled, from $145,000 in 2000 to more than $435,000 in 2025, according to the National Association of Realtors. And mortgage rates? They’re now slightly lower than they were in much of the 1990s, though higher than the unusually low levels of the early 2000s through 2023. In the meantime, median household income has climbed from $42,000 to just under $80,000. That means home values have far outpaced income growth, reshaping affordability.

As for newly built homes, construction plunged after early-2000s overbuilding and risky lending fueled the housing crash. Recovery has been slow, with builder activity trailing household formation and leaving a huge shortfall. “This structural supply-demand imbalance has driven home prices higher, vacancy rates lower, and affordability challenges deeper," says Jones.

The past five years saw even more intensity, with the COVID-19 pandemic-era demand colliding with limited supply, sending prices soaring. And so the story goes: Rising mortgage rates sidelined many buyers, and has now led to higher inventory — a shift toward balance that’s tempered by persistent affordability constraints. While buyers have more choice, they remain unable to take advantage, creating a tougher environment for sellers.

Today’s market, however, is a far cry from the late ’90s: Buyers face few affordable options. And sellers? They are finding buyers less eager. Despite this, at 4.1 months’ supply as of June 2025, sellers are still in a pretty good position compared to the turn of the millennium. And for longtime owners, decades of appreciation mean substantial potential gains when selling.

That 10, 20, or even 30-year real estate asset you’ve been living in has grown far more valuable than you might think. With home prices having doubled across the U.S. over the past few decades (in many markets doubling, tripling, or more since the early 2000s), that long-term appreciation, combined with years of mortgage payments steadily reducing your balance, has likely left you with record-high equity.

This equity represents real wealth you can use, says Jones. Selling could allow you to cash in while prices remain historically strong. While homes are spending longer on the market, longtime homeowners have more flexibility to price competitively to attract buyer attention and come away with a tidy profit.

The term “buyer-friendly” may not apply nationwide, however, with conditions varying widely by region. “In the South and West, inventory is 4.3% and 9.3% higher than pre-pandemic levels respectively, giving buyers more options. But the Midwest and Northeast still trail pre-pandemic supply by 40% and 51.1%, limiting choice for buyers and forcing competition among sellers. Don’t forget, however, that understanding not only what buyers want, but also what they’re willing to pay, are key to a successful sale.

Jones cites a recent survey finding that the typical homeowner expects that from making a selling decision to closing, it now takes about 10 months to sell a home. Baby boomers have reason to be more optimistic, estimating closer to six months, since they may have accrued more equity than their millennial offspring. But the message is clear: If you’re aiming to sell in 2026, now is the time to start preparing, especially if you want to maximize the spring market’s higher buyer activity.

What to do now? First off, interview multiple agents to find the right fit. Then assess your home’s value and equity position. Next, identify needed updates or repairs. And lastly, plan your listing timeline to align with peak spring demand.

Realtor, TBWS

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up. Tracking these securities real-time is critical. For more information about the rate market, contact me directly. I'm among few mortgage professionals who have access to live trading screens during market hours.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are getting a little support today. The MBS market improved by +59 bps last week. This was enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility yesterday.

This Week's Rate Forecast: Neutral

These are the three things that have the greatest ability to impact rates this week. 1) The Fed, 2) Inflation and 3) Geopolitical

1) The Fed:

While the Fed is on a media blackout leading into next week's FOMC meeting, there is still plenty of speculation (and drama) for the markets. Right now, the bond market is fully on board with at least a 25 basis point cut, however we will see fluctuations in rates based up on the ebb and flow of speculations of a 50 basis point cut.

2) Inflation:

We will get both the Producer Price Index and the Consumer Price Index this week, with CPI getting the most attention. The bond market will be focusing on whether Tariffs are pushing inflation higher. And if so, how could it impact the Fed's decision on 25 basis point or 50 basis point cut at their next meeting.

3) Geopolitical:

The PM of Japan has resigned, and it is expected that the PM of France will be out as well. Tariffs are also still very much in the spotlight with legal action. There are also concerns over India and South Korea.

Central Banks:

We will get an important Interest Rate Decision and Policy Statement out of the European Central Bank on Thursday.

Treasury Auction:

We have three important auctions Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

This Week's Potential Volatility: High

This morning markets have started with a little support. Volatility has started at moderate to low levels but will increase later in the week.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

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