CHM Blog

At 7:30 am ET the 10 year note 4.50% -3 bps. At 8:30 am weekly jobless claims expected at 215K increased to 219K an increase of 5K from the previous week. Continuing claims were at 1,869 million after the first week of February, loosely in line with market expectations of 1,870 million. The data continued to show that the US labor market remains at historically tight levels despite the slight softening since its post-pandemic peak, in line with the rhetoric from FOMC members. Trump firings have not yet shown up in the unemployment filings but as more firings occur, we can expect claims to increase over the next month or two, causing unemployment to climb. Businesses not firing, keeping workers in place with the tight employment market.

The initial reaction of the bond and mortgage markets pushed the 10 year note from 4.50% to 4.52% and MBS prices from +9 bps to unchanged by 9 am.

The February Philadelphia Fed business index, a report that doesn’t garner much reaction, expected at 22.7 from the huge increase of 44.3 in January, the highest in five years, increased 18.1. For most all of 2024 the index hovered around 0.0 and some months were negative.

At 10 am January leading economic indicators, expected 0.0% reported -0.3%.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened -163, NASDAQ -28, S&P -15. 10 year at 9:30 am 4.52% -2 bps, for a brief moment the note fell to 4.50%. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +3 bps from yesterday’s close and +20 bp from 9:30 am yesterday.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.50% -3 bp

5 year note: 4.34% -3 bp

2 year note: 4.26% -1 bp

30 year bond: 4.74% -3 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 100.86 +3 bp (+20 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 102.57 +1 bp (+15 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 100.87 +1 bp (+18 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 149.88 -1.59 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0454 +$0.0030

Dollar Index: 106.98 -0.19

Gold: $2,953.50 +$17.40

Bitcoin: 97,574 +1438

Crude Oil: $72.62 +$0.37

DJIA: 44,310 -317

NASDAQ: 19,844 -212

S&P 500: 6099 -47

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.