CHM Blog

Tariffs went into effect at 12 am ET this morning, 25% on Canada and Mexico and 20% on China (increased from 10% originally). The tariffs are expected to have significant economic impacts, including increased costs for US households and slower economic growth, and may lead to further retaliatory measures from other countries. Canada and China have retaliated with their own tariffs, with Canada imposing phased levies on $107 billion worth of US goods and China imposing tariffs of up to 15% on American agricultural shipments. (Bloomberg AI). Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum saying retaliatory tariffs are coming Sunday.

There was some belief Trump wouldn’t go through with these tariffs and other tariffs he has talked about. His goal, whether it is doable or not is to balance trade between the US and other exporters to the US. The reaction sent Europe’s and US stock markets lower and pushed rates lower as investors seek to mitigate the recent and likely continued decline in equities. Prices are expected to increase on products from autos to groceries.

The Budget Lab at Yale saying import level averages are the highest since 1943 and lead to costs to households of as much as $2,000.00 and slower growth. Steel and aluminum are next, 25% that will hit Canada and Mexico hard.

No budget to fund the government, politicians continue to argue, if they can’t get a budget passed by a week from this Friday the government will shout down.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened -279, NASDQ -175, S&P -48. The 10 year note 4.16% -2 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon price at 9:30 am +5 bps and +16 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.14% -4 bp

5 year note: 3.97% unch

2 year note: 3.90% -6 bp

30 year bond: 4.48% +2 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.68 +5 bp (+16 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 103.03 +1 bp (+5 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.42 +3 bp (+11 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 148.51 -1.00 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0527 +$0.0038

Dollar Index: 106.18 -0.57

Gold: $2,924.40 +$23.40

Bitcoin: 83,994 -1943

Crude Oil: $67.53 -$0.84

DJIA: 42,605 -586

NASDAQ: 18,066 -284

S&P 500: 5760 -90

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.