CHM Blog

Today, a big day for key data.

Mortgage application volumes in the US sank by 4.2% from the previous week on the period ending April 25th, extending the 12.7% drop earlier, which was the sharpest in six months. Applications for a mortgage to purchase a new home were 4% lower on the week and 7% lower on the month, applications to refinance a home loan dropped by 4% on the week.

The 10 year note at 4.15% at 8 am ET down 3 bps from yesterday. At 8:15 am ADP reported April private jobs expected +125K, reported at 62K and March jobs revised from 155K to 147K. Yesterday March JOLTS job openings declined, the decline in ADP and JOLTS suggests employment is slowing and increases the view the Fed may be inclined to lower rates.

At 8:30 am Q1 advance GDP, the second look, was expected at +0.2% from +2.4% growth in Q4 2024. Growth -0.3%, the first contraction since 2022. Personal consumption expenditures declined from 4.0% in Q4 to +1.8%. Q1 employment cost index thought to be +0.9%, unchanged from Q4 2024; costs reported at 0.9%, year/year +3.6% from 3.8% in Q4.

Treasury refunding announced. The U.S. Department of the Treasury is offering $125 billion of Treasury securities to refund approximately $94.2 billion of privately-held Treasury notes maturing on May 15, 2025. This issuance will raise new cash from private investors of approximately $30.8 billion. The securities are 3-year note in the amount of $58 billion, maturing May 15, 2028; 10-year note in the amount of $42 billion, maturing May 15, 2035; and 30-year bond in the amount of $25 billion, maturing May 15, 2055. The 3-year note will be auctioned at 1 pm ET on Monday, May 5, 2025. The 10-year note will be auctioned at pm ET on Tuesday, May 6, 2025. The 30-year bond will be auctioned at 1 pm ET on Thursday, May 8.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened -431, NASDAQ -344, S&P -80. 10 year 4.18% unchanged, FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -5 bps from yesterday’s close and +6 bps from 9:30 am yesterday. MBS prices won’t be set until the 10 am data is released.

At 9:45 am April Chicago purchasing managers index expected at 45.8 dropped to 44.6 showing more contraction from 47.6 in March.

At 10 am the key data for the day; March inflation PCE month/month expected 0.0% from +0.3% in February, year/year +2.2% from 2.5%; core month/month +0.1% from 0.4%, year/year +2.6% from 2.8%. Month/month PCE reported 0.0%, year/year +2.3% down from 2.7%. Core PCE month/month +0.0% own from +0.5%, year/year 2.6% from 3.0% in February.

Also at 10 am, March personal income month/month +0.4%, personal spending month/month +0.5%. Income reported +0.5%, spending +0.7%.

March pending home sales thought to be +1.0% from +2.0% in February increased 6.1%.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.18% unch

5 year note: 3.76% -1 bp

2 year note: 3.63% -2 bp

30 year bond: 4.68% +3 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: @10 am 101.32 -7 bp (+4 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 6.5: @10 am 102.90 -7 bp (-2 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 6.0: @10 am 101.01 -5 bp (+5 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 142.76 +0.41 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1370 -$0.0016

Dollar Index: 99.37 +0.13

Gold: $3,325.30 -$8.30

Bitcoin: 93,895 -1442

Crude Oil: $59.58 -$0.83

DJIA: 39,895 -632

NASDAQ: 17,047 -415

S&P 500: 5458 -103

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.