April 29th, 2025 8:48 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
This week is a busy week for US data, a loaded calendar after very little last week. This morning unchanged from Friday. There are no data points today.
Tariffs and the potential of the impact on the US economy, and growing concern over the US dollar’s value remain the main concerns for US interest rates. If all this week’s data were to tilt to weakness against forecasts there is potential of more dollar selling that will send rates higher. No hard news about tariffs, Secretary of Treasury Bessent saying tariff agreements are up to China now because of wide trade imbalance between the US and China. “As I’ve repeatedly said, I believe it’s up to China to de-escalate because they sell five times more to us than we sell to them, so these 125% tariffs are unsustainable.” Last week China said it will exempt some goods that has been taken as a willingness to talk.
Bessent commented the US has put China on the sidelines for the time being focusing on trade deals with countries willing to negotiate saying 15 to 17 countries are closer. He speculated a deal with India my be the first to get done. During last week’s IMF meeting according to Bessent US officials and Chinese officials talked about “financial stability” but did not talk tariffs. Bessent, adding that he has “an escalation ladder in my back pocket and we’re very anxious not to have to use it.” Escalation could include an “embargo,” he said.
Looking for a quiet session today with no economic details and a full calendar through the week. Trade continues to headline, needing some specifics but moving slowly. Unemployment, Q1 GDP, weekly claims are the keys. The 10 year note continues to find technical resistance at 4.20%, the note has traded below it for just four days since last December.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.28% +4 bp
5 year note: 3.89% +3 bp
2 year note: 3.76% +1 bp
30 year bond: 4.73% +3 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.24 -3 bp (+4 bp from 9:30 am Friday)
30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 102.92 -1 bp (-1 bp from 9:30 am Friday)
30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 100.97 -3 bp (+2 bp from 9:30 am Friday)
Dollar/Yen: 143.22 -0.44 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1364 unch
Dollar Index: 99.51 +0.04
Gold: $3,305.30 +$6.90
Bitcoin: 94,797 +352
Crude Oil: $62.93 -$0.09
DJIA: 40,206 +103
NASDAQ: 17,329 -54
S&P 500: 5522 -3 bp
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.