CHM Blog

Prior to 8:30 am ET this morning the 10 year note traded at 4.33% and stock indexes were lower (DJIA -150). At 8:30 am February retails were reported +0.2% against forecasts of +0.7%, very little initial reaction to the weakness the 10 at 9 am 4.32% +1 bp. Sales at nonstore retailers recorded the biggest increase (2.4%), followed by health & personal care stores (1.7%), food & beverage (0.4%), and general merchandise (0.2%). In contrast, declines were seen at food services & drinking places (-1.5%), gasoline stations (-1%), clothing (-0.6%), motor vehicle & parts dealers (-0.4%), sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, & book stores (-0.4%), miscellaneous store retailers (-0.3%) and electronics & appliance stores (-0.3%). Sales at furniture stores stalled. Meanwhile, sales excluding food services, auto dealers, building materials stores and gasoline stations, which are used to calculate GDP, jumped 1%, reversing a downwardly revised 1% fall in January and much better than forecasts of a 0.2% rise. Retail sales data is not adjusted for inflation.

The not so important NY Empire state manufacturing index fell twenty-six points to -20.0 in March 2025, the lowest since May 2023 and below market expectations of -0.75. Both new orders and shipments fell, with the new orders index dropping to -14.9 and the shipments index to -8.5. Despite this, inventories continued to grow, reaching their highest level in over two years. Business optimism continued to decline for the second consecutive month, with the future business activity index falling further to 12.7. Capital spending remained weak, and firms expect input price increases to persist, while supply availability is anticipated to decrease slightly.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +108, NASDAQ +16, S&P +10. 10 year note 4.30% -1 bp. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +10 bps from Friday’s close and +6 bps from 9:30 am Friday.

At 10 am March NAHB housing market index, expected unchanged at 42; the index dipped to 39.

On Wednesday, the FOMC policy statement and Powell’s press conference. Expect both the statement and Powell to continue saying the Fed is taking it one data point at a time and is monitoring the situation. Powell will stress the Fed is watching closely and will be ready to react when and if the situation warrants.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.30% -1 bp

5 year note: 4.10% unch

2 year note: 4.05% +2 bp

30 year bond: 4.59% -3 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.32 +6 bp (+2 bp from 9:30 am Friday)

30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 102.85 +5 bp (+2 bp from 9:30 am Friday)

30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.38 +7 bp (+3 bp from 9:30 am Friday)

Dollar/Yen: 148.91 +0.27 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0903 +$0.0025

Dollar Index: 103.56 -0.16

Gold: $2,996.50 -$4.60

Bitcoin: 83,402 +313

Crude Oil: $67.89 +$0.71

DJIA: 41,675 +186

NASDAQ: 17,772 +18

S&P 500: 5658 +19

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.