CHM Blog

After a decline in rates over the last week, this morning rates edged higher, at 8 am ET the 10 year note at 4.29% +3 bps, early MBS trading -8 bps from yesterday’s close.

At 8:30 am weekly jobless claims expected at 224K increased 242K, +22K from the prior week. Continuing claims from two weeks ago declined 5K to 1.852 million. Claims beginning to show the impact of California fires and North Carolina devastation. Q4 GDP 2nd look remained at +2.3%, 4th Q GDP deflator +2.4%. January durable goods new orders increased 3.1% with forecasts at +1.9% and up from -1.8% in December, ex-transportation orders 0.0% with expectations +0.4%, core capital goods thought to be +0.5% increased 0.8%.

Tariffs getting more attention this morning with Trump talking tariffs on Europe including cars, will be 25%. It’s unclear, though, whether that proposal would indeed affect all exports from the bloc or only certain sectors, and no decisions have been made, an official said. Also, Mexico and Canada tariffs were under review awaiting Trump’s assessment of any progress over the last month. This morning however after the required review Trump announced the tariffs on the two counties will begin next Tuesday and China will be charged an additional 10% tariff at the same time.

Ukraine president Zelenskyy at the White House today, expected to sign Trump’s rare earth mineral deal. Tomorrow UK prime minster will visit. There are so many balls in the air right now, its difficult for investors and traders to assess them all. Reciprocal tariffs from other nations beginning to take hold, Turkey will add export tariffs on egg shipments to the US as a start, although the big push on tariffs and market reactions won’t get into high gear until next week.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +46, NASDQ +135, S&P +26. 10 year at 9:30 am 4.30% +4 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -6 bps from yesterday’s close and +2 bp from 9:30 am yesterday.

At 10 am January pending home sales, expected -1.2%, reported -4.6%, the index at 70.6 from 74.0 in December. The December sales revised from -5.5% to -4.1% We will have details this afternoon.

Tomorrow key inflation data with the January personal consumption expenditure (PCE).

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.29% +3 bp

5 year note: 4.12% +3 bp

2 year note: 4.11% +3 bp

30 year bond: 4.54% +3 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.45 -6 bp (+2 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 102.95 -5 bp (+3 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.25 -3 bp (+4 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 149.88 +0.78 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0424 -$0.0062

Dollar Index: 107.12 +0.70

Gold: $2,894.70 -$35.90

Bitcoin: 85,259 +1049

Crude Oil: $69.81 +$1.19

DJIA: 43,550 +117

NASDAQ: 18,916 -159

S&P 500: 5943 -13

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

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MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.