June 10th, 2025 10:05 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
The 10 year note began this morning down 3 bps after slipping 3 bps yesterday, MBSs yesterday +12 bps, this morning up another 9 bps in early trading.
US and global markets focused on the trade talks between the US and China taking place in London, nothing so far other than comments that progress is being made. The US willing to work with China to gain access to its rare earth minerals, China wants less tariffs. No major breakthroughs were reported after the first round of discussions yesterday, US officials expressed optimism about the negotiations. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said talks are going well and are expected to go all day today.
The only data point today, the May NFIB small business optimism index. The index expected at 95.9 from 95.8 in April increased to 98.8, the highest reading in three months. Eighteen percent of small business owners reported taxes as their single most important problem, up two points from April and ranking as the top problem. The last time taxes were ranked as the top single most important problem was in December 2020. In addition, the net percent of owners expecting better business conditions rose 10 points from April to 25%. Fourteen percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business, unchanged from April.
This afternoon at 1 pm ET Treasury will auction $58B of 3 year notes, these days with increased concern over the US debt and the reconciliation bill that is expected to add to the deficit the demand for US debt is an increasing concern.
Tomorrow May consumer price index, CPI and Thursday May producer price index, PPI, two key inflation reports. Also, tomorrow Treasury will auction $39B of 10 year notes that will generate a lot of interest. Treasury is expected to report its May budget; expectations are the deficit will be -$313B after April’s surplus of $258.4B.
At 9:30 am ET the DJIA opened -19, NASDAQ +27, S%P +10. 10 year note at 9:30 am -3 bps to 4.45%. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon +8 bps from yesterday’s close and +20 bp from 9:30 am yesterday.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.45% -3 bp
5 year note: 4.06% -2 bp
2 year note: 4.00% -2 bp
30 year bond: 4.91% -3 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 100.76 +9 bp (+21 bp from 9:30 yesterday)
30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 102.58 +8 bp (+18 bp from 9:30 yesterday)
30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 100.89 +7 bp (+24 bp from 9:30 yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 144.54 -0.06 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1442 +$0.0021
Dollar Index: 98.89 -0.05
Gold: $3,364.80 +$9.90
Bitcoin: 109,466 +797
Crude Oil: $65.51 +$0.22
DJIA: 42,740 -22
NASDAQ: 19,525 +33
S&P 500: 6015 +9
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.