CHM Blog

Yesterday May ADP jobs, forecasts were ADP to report jobs +110K, jobs were up just 37K. The fall is in line with many traders and investors believing the economy is beginning to slow with unemployment increasing and inflation to increase.

Weekly jobless claims estimates were 235K, claims increased by 247K. Claims now at their highest since last October. Continuing claims edged slightly lower to 1,904,000 in the week ending May 24, down from a revised 1,907,000 and below expectations of 1,910,000.

Q1 productivity and unit labor costs; productivity estimates were -0.8%, declined -1.5%, unit labor costs thought to be +5.7% jumped to 6.6%. The productivity decline was the first since Q2 2022, largely driven by falling output and rising labor costs; on an annual basis, labor productivity increased by 1.3%, down slightly from the earlier estimate of 1.4%.

April US trade deficit was expected at -$118.1B, it was better at -$61.6B, the lowest monthly level since August 2023 and down from -$138.3B in March.

The ECB continued to cut rates today, the 10th cut in this series.

Challenger, Gray & Christmas saying “Tariffs, funding cuts, consumer spending, and overall economic pessimism are putting intense pressure on companies’ workforces. Companies are spending less, slowing hiring, and sending layoff notices,” Employers announced 93,816 job cuts in May, the lowest in four months, compared to 105,441 in April. The services sector cut the most jobs in May (22,492), the highest monthly total for the industry since May 2020, followed by retail (11,483) and health care/products (6,514).

Early this morning the 10 year note yield, after falling 11 bps yesterday was down another 4 bps to 4.32%, as the morning wore on the rate increased back to unchanged at 4.36%.

At 9:30 am ET the DJIA opened +78, NASDAQ +60, S%P +16. 10 year note yield 4.36% unchanged FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -2 bps from yesterday’s close and +14 bp from 9:30 am yesterday.

Nothing left on today’s schedule, traders remain edgy with the potential of news coming out of the White House and news over the budget talks.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.35% -1 bp

5 year note: 3.93% unch

2 year note: 3.88% unch

30 year bond: 4.86% -2 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.13 -1 bp (+13 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 102.81 -3 bp (+4 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.04 -2 bp (+13 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 142.98 +0.20 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1481 +$0.0061

Dollar Index: 98.38 -0.41

Gold: $3,411.40 +$11.30

Bitcoin: 105,468 +477

Crude Oil: $63.82 +$0.97

DJIA: 42,250 -178

NASDAQ: 19,403 -57

S&P 500: 5951 -27

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.