CHM Blog

Yesterday the key 10 year note yield increased 4 bps, this morning down 4 bps at 4.40%, a key level. The note hasn’t breached 4.40% since early May. The improvement today due to the OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) lowering its global forecast for the second time this year. The US growth was lowered to 1.6% this year and 1.5% growth in 2026. Last March OCED had growth in the US at 2.2%.

At 9:30 am ET the DJIA opened -13, NASDAQ +57, S&P +5. 10 year 4.343% -2 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +7 bps and +4 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.

At 10 am April JOLTS job openings, estimates were openings to have weakened to 7.10 million from 7.192 million in March. Openings have been slowing since February. Openings surprised to the upside, reported at 7.381 million. The number of job openings increased in arts, entertainment, and recreation (+43,000) and in mining and logging (+10,000). On the other hand, the number of job openings decreased in accommodation and food services (-135,000) and in state and local government, education (-51,000). Regarding regional distribution, job openings rose in the Northeast (116K), the South (127K), and in the West (33K), but fell in the Midwest (-85K). Meanwhile, both hires and total separations were little changed at 5.6 million and 5.3 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.8 million) changed little.

The number of job quits in the US fell by 150,000 to a four-month low of 3.194 million in April 2025, from the upwardly revised 3.344 million in March and 3.414 million a year ago. The quits rate, a metric that measures voluntary job leavers as a proportion of total employment, ticked down to 2% from 2.1% in the previous month. Quits declined primarily in trade, transportation, and utilities (-123,000).

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.43% -2 bp

5 year note: 4.00% -1 bp

2 year note: 3.95% unch

30 year bond: 4.95% -2 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 100.89 +7 bp (+4 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 102.67 +10 bp (+6 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 100.88 +6 bp (+4 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 134.54 +0.83 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1384 -$0.0058

Dollar Index: 99.09 +0.39

Gold: $3,374.40 -$22.80

Bitcoin: 105,643 +1160

Crude Oil: $62.94 +$0.42

DJIA: 42,244 -62

NASDAQ: 19,304 +61

S&P 500: 5932 -4

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.