June 6th, 2025 10:53 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
May employment data at 8:30 am ET this morning is a reminder how volatile the report can be. After ADP reported just 37K jobs on Wednesday the BLS report this morning was tilted to lower jobs with markets continuing to expect weaker employment and increasing inflation. NFP jobs were expected at +129K, increased 139K, but April NFP jobs were revised lower from 177K to 147K. Private jobs estimate was +120K, reported 140K, as with NFP jobs April private jobs were revised lower, from 167K to 146K. The labor participation rate at 62.4% down from 62.6% matching February's two-year low, while the employment-population ratio declined by 0.3% points to 59.7%, reaching the lowest level since January 2022. Employment fell in manufacturing, retail, government, and white-collar professions. Additionally, the U-6 unemployment rate, which includes those marginally attached to the labor force and those working part-time for economic reasons, was unchanged at 7.8%. Earnings were higher than expected; month/month +0.4% with forecasts at +0.3% and higher than April’s 0.2%; year/year +3.9% against 3.7% estimates and 3.8% in April. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%. The initial reaction pushed the 10 year note 7 bps to 4.47%, MBS prices down 16 bps.
At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +357, NASDAQ +225, S&P +55. 10 year at 9:30 am +7 bps to 4.47%. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -15 bps from yesterday’s close and -27 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.
The 10 year note is back to where it traded Tuesday prior to the ADP jobs (+37K) that sent the yield to 4.33% yesterday morning before climbing back to 4.40% at yesterdays close. 4.40% still a pressure point for the note. Today the 10 year note back above its 25 day average at 4.44%. Next week we will get May CPI and PPI inflation data.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.47% +7 bp
5 year note: 4.10% +9 bp
2 year note: 4.03% +10 bp
30 year bond: 4.94% +6 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 100.86 -15 bp (-27 bp from 9:30 yesterday)
30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 102.73 +4 bp (-8 bp from 9:30 yesterday)
30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 100.89 -7 bp (-15 bp from 9:30 yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 144.86 +1.31 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1393 -$0.0052
Dollar Index: 99.26 +0.52
Gold: $3,374.90 -$0.20
Bitcoin: 104,063 +2160
Crude Oil: $64.56 +$1.19
DJIA: 42,854 +534
NASDAQ: 19,537 +238
S&P 500: 6006 +67
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.