January 8th, 2026 9:06 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
Weekly jobless claims at 8:30 am ET this morning were generally in line with forecasts, claims increased 8K from the previous week to 208K with expectations at 208K. Claims are below the average through the previous year. Continuing jobless claims rose by 56K to 1.914 million two weeks ago, above market expectations of 1.900 million. More evidence that the US labor market has a slow pace of hiring against a steady level of firing. The 4 week average of claims 211.75K. Yesterday December ADP jobs were softer than estimates driving the key 10 year note down 4 bps to 4.13%, two hours later the November JOLTS job openings were less than estimates erasing much of the gain from ADP.
The reaction to the claims this morning increasing the 10 yield up 2 bps from yesterday’s close and MBS prices traded down 14 bps.
Q3 2025 productivity expected at +3.6% increased +4.9%; unit labor costs expected +0.8%, declined 1.9%. More evidence that inflation isn’t heating up.
October 2025 US trade deficit thought to be -$59.1B, reported at -$29.4B; September revised from -$52.8B to -$48.1B.
At 9:30 am the DJIA opened -110, NASDAQ -60, S&P -9. 10 year 4.18% +2 bps. FNMA 5.0 30 year price -14 bps from yesterday’s close and -19 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.
Tomorrow the December employment report will set the table on whether the key 10 year can hold 4.20%. The economy is hanging in, inflation isn’t escalating (or declining), employment weakening but so far it too is holding better than anticipated.
Trump trying to help the housing sector, he is planning to ban “large institutional investors” from buying single-family homes in an attempt to address spiraling housing costs. Will it help, some say not much.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.18% +2 bp
5 year note: 3.74% +3 bp
2 year note: 3.49% +1 bp
30 year bond: 4.86% +2 bp
30 year FNMA 5.0: @9:30 99.71 -14 bp (-19 bp from 9:30 yesterday)
30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 101.42 -9 bp (-11 bp from 9:30 yesterday)
30 year GNMA 5.0: @9:30 99.80 -13 bp (-14 bp from 9:30 yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 157.05 +0.28 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1663 -$0.0013
Dollar Index: 98.90 +0.21
Gold: $4,437.50 -$25.00
Bitcoin: 89,481 -1470
Crude Oil: $57.12 +$1.14
DJIA: 49,040 +44
NASDAQ: 23,414 -170
S&P 500: 6908 -13
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.