CHM Blog

Last week jobless claims better than expected, up 1K to 200K, expectations were 210K. Continuing claims fell by 26K to 1,849 million in the previous period, remaining under averages from the second half of last year, but remaining above post-pandemic shock levels. It is a low-firing and low-hiring labor market but holding better than what the Fed has been worrying about.

Q3 2025 GDP a little stronger than thought, +4.4% revised from 4.3% growth in the preliminary report. It is old data but it’s the best there is since the government doesn’t have more current data. It primarily reflected upward revisions to exports and investment that were partly offset by a downward revision to consumer spending. Imports were revised up.

The reaction to the two 8:30 am ET releases pushed bonds a little higher, jobless claims were less than forecasts and a better Q3 growth doesn’t bode well for a FEd rate cut. No cut next week and unless unemployment and inflation increase no cut in March.

The President cooled the Greenland issue yesterday in Davos, saying he and the head of NATO had agreed on an initial framework to work out an agreeable solution that doesn’t involve military force or tariffs.

At 10 am November PCE inflation, month/month +0.3% against +0.5%, year/year expected at 2.7% increased to 3.0%; core month/month +0.2% as expected, year/year thought to be +2.8% increased to +3.0%.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.28% +3 bp

5 year note: 3.87% +4 bp

2 year note: 3.62% +2 bp

30 year bond: 4.88% +2 bp

30 year FNMA 5.0: @9:30 am 99.79 -13 bp (-2 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 101.24 -3 bp (+4 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 5.0: @9:30 am 99.62 -13 bp (-2 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 158.59 +0.28 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1722 +$0.0036

Dollar Index: 98.53 -0.22

Gold: $4,844.50 +$7.00

Bitcoin: 89,403 -699

Crude Oil: $59.59 -$1.03

DJIA: 49,337 +260

NASDAQ: 23,364 +140

S&P 500: 6901 +25

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.