CHM Blog

Early this morning the 10 year note rate traded at 4.31%, -8 bps but by 8:30 am ET the note back to 4.35% -4 bps. MBS prices saw a low price of -27 bps but also followed the note back higher, down 16 bps at 8:30 am. It is good news although markets still face increasing inflation concerns. Stocks in futures markets at 8:30 am DJIA +320, NASDAQ +213, S&P +47.

MBA reported last week’s mortgage applications fell 10.5% from the week before, the week before down 10.8% from from the week before that. Applications for a contract to refinance a mortgage, which are more sensitive to short-term changes in interest rates, sank by 15%. In turn, applications for a mortgage to buy a home fell 5%.

February import prices rose 1.3% in February 2026, the most since March 2022 and more than market expectations of 0.5%. On an annual basis, import prices rose 1.3%, the largest year-on-year gain since February 2025. Export prices jumped 1.5% month-over-month in February, far outpacing forecasts of 0.5% and marking the sharpest increase since May 2022. Year/year export prices climbed 3.5% in February, the largest increase since last September.

At 1 pm Treasury will sell $70B of 5 year notes, the demand for US treasuries has been weak recently with inflation concerns still at high levels.

It is a good start today, but we don’t see any new trend developing until a real deal is reached with Iran.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.34% -4 bp

5 year note: 3.99% -4 bp

2 year note: 3.90% -3 bp

30 year bond: 4.91% -2 bp

30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.31 +27 bp (+26 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.75 +14 bp (+8 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.37 +20 bp (+18 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 159.06 +0.36 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1576 -$0.0032

Dollar Index: 99.44 +0.01

Gold: $4,557.40 +$155.40

Bitcoin: 71,716 +2397

Crude Oil: $87.57 -$4.78

DJIA: 46,414 +290

NASDAQ: 21,963 +201

S&P 500: 6598 +44

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

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