July 30th, 2026 9:49 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
Yesterday’s press conference by Kevin Warsh left more confusion in markets about what, if anything, the Fed will do with rates. The 10 year note rate increased 7 bps, the 30 year bond +11 bps, the 2 year note down 1 bps. The DJIA fell 1152 points.
Last night the US launched more attacks on Iran after Iran hit other mid-east countries with drones and missiles. Egypt was attacked, the Saudis were attacked, Iran attacked US military bases in Jordan.
Weekly jobless claims were expected at 205K, reported at 197K, rebounding by 9K from the 57-year low in the previous week. Continuing claims, which are seen as a gauge of outstanding unemployment in the US, fell by 7,000 to 1,782,000 in the earlier week, below expectations of 1,800,000 to mark the lowest in over one month. The employment sector still holding well.
Q2 advance GDP expected at +2.1%, reported +1.5% from +2.1% in Q1.
June PCE inflation, what used to be the Fed’s favorite inflation data but yesterday Warsh indicated he isn’t enamored with it. Month/month overall PCE was as expected -0.1% from +0.5% in May, year/year overall expected at 3.7% from 4.1%, reported at 3.7%; core PCE ex food and energy month/month expected +0.2% but reported +0.1%, year/year core estimates +3.3% hit at 3.3% and down from 3.4% in May.
June personal income rose 0.2% month/month, falling short of market expectations for a 0.3% increase and slowing from a 0.7% gain in May. June personal spending increased by $65.2B, or 0.3%, in June from the previous month, slowing from an upwardly revised 0.9% gain in May, largely due to a sharp decline in gasoline spending.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.67% -1 bp
5 year note: 4.38% -3 bp
2 year note: 4.23% -5 bp
30 year bond: 5.21% unch
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.44 +10 bp (+15 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 99.43 +15 bp (+7 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.58 -18 bp (-12 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 160.97 -2.44 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1506 +$0.0039
Dollar Index: 100.33 -0.56
Gold: $4,1549.10 +$112.80
Bitcoin: 65,053 +1536
Crude Oil: $83.67 -$0.79
DJIA: 51,966 +372
NASDAQ: 25,066 +623
S&P 500: 7411 +95
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.