CHM Blog

Negotiations stalled once again with Iran. The Iran conflict has now entered its ninth week, triggering what the IEA has described as the largest energy supply shock on record, Crude oil this morning not much changed from Friday, stock indexes at 8 am ET also unchanged from Friday.

The FOMC meeting begins tomorrow with the policy statement and Powell’s press conference on Wednesday, likely his last as Fed chair. No change in rates expected. What will Powell say about the inflation outlook with energy prices creeping higher? Treasury will auction $183 Billion of treasury notes starting today with a 2 year auction at 11 am and 5 year note at 1 pm, tomorrow the 7 year note.

• Monday:

11 am 2 Year Treasury Auction

1 pm 5 Year Treasury Auction

• Tuesday:

10 am April consumer confidence index (89.4 from 91.8).

1 pm 7 Year Treasury Auction

• Wednesday:

8:30 am March housing starts and permits (starts 1.40 million, permits 1.398 million), March trade in goods (-$87.8B).

• Thursday:

8:30 am Key inflation data, March PCE month/month +0.7% from +0.4%, year/year 3.5% from 2.8%; core month/month +0.3% from +0.4%, year/year 3.2% from 3.0%.

8:30 am March personal income (month/month +0.3% from -0.1% in February, personal spending +0.9% from +0.5% month/month, weekly jobless claims 212K from 214K, Q1 advance GDP +2.1% from +0.5% in Q4 2025.

• Friday:

10 am April ISM manufacturing index (53.0 from 52.7).

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.32% +1 bp

5 year note: 3.94% +1 bp

2 year note: 3.80% +1 bp

30 year bond: 4.93% +2 bp

30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 100.88 -4 bp (+15 bp from 9:30 Friday)

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 102,27 -5 bp (+6 bp from 9:30 Friday)

30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 100.89 -7 bp (+5 bp from 9:30 Friday)

Dollar/Yen: 159.23 -0.14 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1740 +$0.0018

Dollar Index: 98.30 -0.24

Gold: $4,707.90 -$33.00

Bitcoin: 77,659 -596

Crude Oil: $96.48 +$2.08

DJIA: 49,231 +0.50

NASDAQ: 24,787 -49

S&P 500: 7164 -1

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.