June 15th, 2026 9:59 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
The US and Iran have made a “memorandum” to end the conflict and open the Strait of Hormus. The US and Iran agreed to a tentative peace deal, extending a cease-fire for 60 days for negotiations, with signing expected Friday in Switzerland. The text of the memorandum has not been released.
Looking past the Iran deal, this week is dominated with the FOMC meeting that begins tomorrow with the policy statement and new Fed chief Kevin Warsh’s press conference on Wednesday. Warsh in previous statements believes Fed officials talk too much, and it has led to too much speculation within markets. Dot plots, where unnamed Fed officials come out with their outlooks is likely to be ended. There is speculation Warsh may cut back on the press conferences after each FOMC meeting, it used to be the Fed chief would hold a press conference four time a year after an FOMC meeting, Powell increased it to every meeting. Fed meets eight times a year.
Data this morning, June Empire State manufacturing index thought to be at 12.5 from 19.6 dropped to 5.7. May industrial production expected +0.2% month/month estimates were +0.2%, reported +0.1%; capacity utilization as expected at 76.2%.
At 10 am June NAHB housing market index, forecasts at 36 down from 37 in May; the index reported at 35.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.45% -5 bp
5 year note: 4.17% -5 bp
2 year note: 4.04% -5 bp
30 year bond: 4.95% -2 bp
30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.37 +18 bp (+22 bp from 9:30 am Friday)
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 102.12 +12 bp (+13 bp from 9:30 am Friday)
30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.77 +27 bp
Dollar/Yen: 160.09 -0.13 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1620 +$0.0051
Dollar Index: 99.44 -0.30
Gold: $4,389 +$150.00 (weaker dollar)
Bitcoin: 66,524 +2763
Crude Oil: $80.38 -$4.50
DJIA: 51,798 +596
NASDAQ: 26,532 +643
S&P 500: 7548 +116
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.