CHM Blog

This morning at 8:30 am ET weekly jobless claims expected at 212K from 214K, claims plunged down to 189K, -26K, the lowest weekly claims going back to 1969. Continuing claims, which are seen as a proxy for outstanding unemployment in the US, fell by 23,000 to 1,785,000 on the previous week, the lowest in two years.

March PCE (personal consumption expenditures) inflation; month/month overall PCE expected +0.7% hit right on estimates, the steepest monthly increase in PCE prices since June 2022; year/year overall thought to be +3.5% also reported right on forecasts; the core ex food and energy rose by 0.3% from the previous month, following a 0.4% increase in February, and in line with market forecasts. Year/year core increased from February, to 3.2% as thought and up from 3.0%.

US personal income rose by 0.6% month-over-month in March, exceeding market expectations of a 0.3% increase, after showing no growth in February.

Q1 employment cost index thought to be +0.8% increased to +0.9% and up from +0.7% in Q4 2025. On an annual basis, employment cost growth remained unchanged from the last period at 3.4%.

The advance look at Q1 GDP, forecasts were +2.1% from +0.5% growth in Q4 2025; reported at +2.0%. Consumer spending, which accounts for roughly two-thirds of economic activity, rose at a slower pace of 1.6% in Q1, following a 1.9% increase in Q4.

At 9:45 am April Chicago purchasing managers index thought to be 55.9 fell to 49.2.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.39% -4 bp

5 year note: 4.03% -5 bp

2 year note: 3.90% -6 bp

30 year bond: 4.49% -4 bp

30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.57 +16 bp (-5 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 102.13 +9bp (-4 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.74 +11 bp (-8 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 156.74 -3.70 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1692 +$0.0016

Dollar Index: 98.50 -0.46

Gold: $4,39.30 +$77.30

Bitcoin: 76,358 +839

Crude Oil: $105.97 -$1.01 (the low this morning $104.00)

DJIA: 49,259 +397

NASDAQ: 24,570 -103

S&P 500: 7137 -1

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.