June 5th, 2026 8:49 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
May BLS jobs exploded higher and April jobs were revised higher. The reaction sent MBS prices down. Non-farm jobs expected +85K increased 172K, April jobs revised from 115K to 214K. Private jobs estimates +90K reported at +120K, April private jobs revised from 123K to 177K, March jobs were also revised higher (+39K) the revisions take job revisions 93K higher than originally released. These are huge deviations from forecasts. Month/month average hourly earnings were as expected +0.3% up from 0.2% in April, year/year 3.4% right on estimates and down from 3.6% in April.
The immediate reaction increased the 10 year note to 4.54%, +6 bps, the 2 year note rate jumped to 4.14% +9 bp, MBS prices down 27 bps.
The data this morning adds increasing concerns that the Fed may have to increase rates. The reaction so far has fully priced out any rate cut this year and leaning to an increase. The 10 year note rate at its highest in eight sessions and broke out of its recent tight range.
No compelling news on Iran this morning. Crude oil continues to decline.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.54% +6 bp
5 year note: 4.27% +8 bp
2 year note: 4.14% +9 bp
30 year bond: 5.02% +4 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.87 -15 bp (-13 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.03 -32 bp (-27 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.62 -14 bp (-14 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 160.09 +0.06 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1583 -$0.0029
Dollar Index: 99.66 +0.24
Gold: $4,413.90 -$91.10
Bitcoin: 61,766 -1804
Crude Oil: $91.57 -$1.47
DJIA: 51,406 -156
NASDAQ: 26,346 -485
S&P 500: 7500 -85
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.