CHM Blog

Weekly jobless claim, expected at 201K reported at 199K, the previous week was revised from 197K to 198K making the week to week increase just 1K. Two weeks ago claims were at 188K, a 57 year low. Continuing claims, which are seen as a gauge of outstanding unemployment in the US, rose by 24,000 to 1,801,000 in the earlier week, remaining well under averages from this year. The data continued to reflect a strong labor market in the US, aligned with statements from FOMC members that see the US economy in full employment.

Q2 preliminary US labor costs forecasts were +0.7%, reported +1.4%. Labor productivity estimates at +2.2% but reported just 1.3%. Q1 productivity revised from +0.3% to +0.8% while unit labor costs revised from 1.8% to 1.3%. Employment strong, productivity stronger than forecasts and unit labor costs low.

Another Fed official, Fed governor Lisa Cook saying she is ready to act to increase the FF rate, at the FOMC meeting she voted with the majority to hold rates unchanged. In other Fed news, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is said to be thinking of less FOMC annual meetings from six to possibly four. He has made a point of removing a lot of Fed data and forecasts letting markets decide with less Fed input.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.64% +2 bp

5 year note: 4.36% +3 bp

2 year note: 4.22% +2 bp

30 year bond: 5.18% +1 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.52 -4 bp (+1 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 99.47 -9 bp (-3 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.82 -5 bp (-9 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 157.92 +0.16 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1514 -$0.0014

Dollar Index: 99.77 +0.09

Gold: $4,324.50 +$19.30

Bitcoin: 64,333 -471

Crude Oil: $76.08 +$0.86

DJIA: 54,292 -57

NASDAQ: 26,413 +49

S&P 500: 7731 +8

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.