CHM Blog

The FOMC meeting ends at 2 pm ET this afternoon, expect more of the same from the policy statement; employment softening inflation creeping higher, no rate cut. At 2:30 pm Powell’s press conference also with more of the same; the economy is holding nicely but employment and inflation remains the Fed’s main focus.

Oil prices after falling the last week are on the increase again, up $10.00/barrel over the last five sessions to $103.40 +3.50 early this morning. No progress with Iran. Reports that the U.S. will look to extend its blockade of Iranian ports, deepening concerns of prolonged disruption through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.

Last week MBA mortgage applications declined 1.6% after increasing 7.9%; purchase applications +1.2% from +10.1%, refinance apps -4.4% from +5.8% the prior week. Other reports on home sales pointing to buyers resurfacing.

March housing starts rose 10.8% month-on-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.502 million, the highest level since December 2024 and well above forecasts of 1.40 million. Single-family starts increased 9.7% to 1.032 million, while multi-family starts jumped 9.6% to 446,000. Building permits fell 10.8% month-on-month in March, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.372 million, the lowest since August 2025. Building permits fell 10.8% month-on-month in March, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.372 million, the lowest since August 2025. Permits for buildings with five or more units dropped by 23.5% to an annualized rate of 427K, while single-family permits decreased by 3.8% to 895K.

Durable goods orders jumped by 0.8% from the previous month to $318.9B in March, rebounding from the revised 1.2% drop February, and slightly ahead of market expectations of a 0.5% increase. Core capital goods (less food and energy) +3.3% from revised +1.6%.

The last press conference for Powell this afternoon and it may be the last of the press conferences after a FOMC meeting for a while. Kevin Warsh, the nominee to take over as Fed chair — has said Fed officials over communicate.

Any additional movement in financial markets won’t happen until between 2:30 pm and 3:30 pm this afternoon. Once the meeting and Powell are digested markets will refocus on Iran.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.40% +5 bp

5 year note: 4.04% +5 bp

2 year note: 3.99% +5 bp

30 year bond: 4.98% +4 bp

30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.62 -14 bp (-15 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 102.17 -7 bp (-7 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.82 -8 bp (-10 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 160.16 +0.55 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1688 -$0.0024

Dollar Index: 98.84 +0.20

Gold: $4,528.30 -$80.10

Bitcoin: 76,565 +245

Crude Oil: $104.89 +$5.00

DJIA: 48,907 -235

NASDAQ: 24,644 -19

S&P 500: 7130 -9

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.