CHM Blog

FOMC meeting begins this morning. Stock indexes mixed, DJIA +459, NASDAQ -188 at 8:30 am ET. Crude oil at 8:30 am -$1.19/barrel.

For the second day no US bombings.

June US international trade deficit expected at -$98.0B, reported -$101.5B; imports -2.6% month/month, exports -1.8%.

The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index rose 1.6% year-over-year in May, increasing from an upwardly revised 1.2% increase in April (from 1.1%) and exceeding market expectations of 1.3%. The annual gain was the strongest since August 2025. However, after adjusting for inflation, home prices declined for a 12th consecutive month, as May's 4.2% inflation rate outpaced nominal home price growth by 2.6 percentage points. Forecasts were 1.4%.

At 10 am July consumer confidence from the Conference Board, the index expected at 92.3 from 91.2 in June. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index inched up by 0.6 points to 91.2 in June, up from a downwardly revised 90.6 in May. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell by 3.0 points to 116.4. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—rose by 3.0 points to 74.4. The survey period for this month’s preliminary results was June 1–23, encompassing an extension of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement.

This afternoon Treasury will sell $44B of 7 year notes; yesterday’s 2 year and 5 year auctions: $69B 2-year Treasury note auction results (prior 12-auction average): High yield: 4.315%. Bid-to-cover: 2.66 (2.61), indirect bid: 56.6% (57.7%), Direct bid: 34.1% (29.9%). $70B 5-year Treasury note auction results: high yield: 4.408% (3.822%), Bid-to-cover: 2.28 (2.38), Indirect bid: 59.2% (63.6%), Direct bid: 27.2% (25.0%).

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.62% -2 bp

5 year note: 4.38% -3 bp

2 year note: 4.29% -3 bp

30 year bond: 5.11% -2 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.34 +8 bp (+8 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 99.39 +11 bp (+12 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.76 +4 bp (-2 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 163.85 +0.10 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1374 +$0.0006

Dollar Index: 101.52 -0.02

Gold: $4,021.60 -$55.40

Bitcoin: 62,913 -1902

Crude Oil: $81.06 -$1.55

DJIA: 52,567 +357

NASDAQ: 24,648 -284

S&P 500: 7395 -19

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

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MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.