June 18th, 2026 9:11 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
Yesterday the FMC and new Fed chair Kevin Warsh, Warsh said what had been anticipated, he wants the Fed to take a hard look at itself. He announced 5 committees to review most aspects about how the Fed assesses and reports policy and curtail a lot of Fed speak and forecasts of individual Fed officials known as dot plots. The reaction in the bond market sent rates higher, the 2 year note increased 15 bps, the 10 year +5 bps, MBS prices down 47 bps. The stock indexes declined, DJIA -507. The takeaway from markets, the Fed is leaning toward increasing rates by the end of the year.
This morning some recovery, the 10 year increased 5 bps yesterday, at 8:30 am ET the note improved 6 bps. MBSs at 8:30 am +20 bps from yesterday’s 47 bp drop. In pre-market futures trading at 8:30 am the DJIA +237.
Weekly jobless claims expected at 225K reported at 226K, down from 230K the previous week. Continuing claims, which are seen as a gauge of outstanding unemployment in the US, rose by 24,000 from to 1,810,000 in the first week of June, the highest in nearly three months. Continuing claims although higher, still the figures remained robust on historical standards, maintaining the trend of low firing and low hiring.
The memorandum of understanding was signed yesterday according to news; it was scheduled for Friday. Friday initial negotiations between the US and Iran for a permanent deal will begin.
Tomorrow US markets will be closed for Juneteenth Day.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.43% -7 bp (yesterday +5 bp)
5 year note: 4.21% -6 bp
2 year note: 4.16% -3 bp (yesterday +15 bp)
30 year bond: 4.88% -6 bp
30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.29 +28 bp (-18 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 102.01 +15 bp (-19 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.51 +25 bp (-16 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 160.87 +0.22 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1473 -$0.0029
Dollar Index: 100.63 +0.54
Gold: $4,278.70 -$102.70
Bitcoin: 64,019 -229
Crude Oil: $73.84 -$2.95
DJIA: 51,705 +212
NASDAQ: 26,275 +253
S&P 500: 7477 +58
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.