August 13th, 2026 6:45 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
Markets have waited since last Friday’s soft July employment report for this morning’s July CPI inflation data. It’s unusual that expectations and reality are the same as is the case this morning. Inflation declined month/month, year/year improved; core month/month increased from June, year/year core declined from June. The reaction pushed MBS prices higher. Core inflation rate, excluding volatile food and fuel costs, eased for the second month to 2.5% in July, the lowest in five months, the index for shelter rose 0.1%, accounting for roughly two-thirds of the monthly increase. Food also went up 0.1%. In contrast, gasoline prices were down 2.9%.
MBA reported weekly mortgage applications for last week; apps rose by 3.6% on the first week of August, the largest increase in two months, and rebounding from two straight periods of decline. Applications to refinance a mortgage rose by 5%. Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home rose by 3%.
At 1 pm Treasury will auction $42B of 10 year notes, yesterday’s 3 year auction met with good demand.
At 2 pm Treasury will report its July budget statement, expected at -$324.5B from -$120.3B in June. US debt continues to increase.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.67% -3 bp
5 year note: 4.36% -3 bp
2 year note: 4.19% -4 bp
30 year bond: 5.23% -1 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.40 +16 bp (+20 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 99.40 +23 bp (+20 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.88 +13 bp (+10 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 158.97 -0.32 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1550 +$0.0007
Dollar Index: 99.74 -0.09
Gold: $4,474.60 +$33.50
Bitcoin: 63,912 +437
Crude Oil: $82.78 -$0.42
DJIA: 53,781 -11
NASDAQ: 26,593 +148
S&P 500: 7750 +22
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.