CHM Blog

This morning more evidence the employment sector is softening with ADP reporting private jobs increased 54K against forecasts of 68K. Weekly jobless claims for last week estimates were +232K, this week 237K, +8K from the previous week. Claims now the highest in two months. Continuing claims though declined from the previous week at 1.940 mil with expectations at 1.960 mil. Yesterday’s JOLTS and this morning’s ADP and weekly jobless claims increase support the idea that the Fed has additional reason to lower their key rate.

Tomorrow the August employment report looms; non-farm payrolls expected +77K, private payrolls +75K both less than July payrolls. The unemployment rate that has been at 4.2% for the last two months is thought to have increased to 4.3%.

Other data this morning; Q2 productivity expected at 2.5% increased to 3.3%, on a year-over-year basis, productivity grew 1.5%, following an increase of 1.2% in the previous quarter. Productivity the strongest since Q4 2023. Q2 unit labor costs forecasts at 1.6% but increased just 1.0%.

July US trade deficit was -$73.8B with estimates at -$70.2B.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened -80, NASDAQ +63, S&P +8. 10 year at 9:30 am 4.19% -3 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +7 bps from yesterday’s close and +15 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.

At 10 am August ISM services sector index estimates were the index at 50.5, reported at 52.

The 10 year note slightly lower than the 4.20% technical resistance at 4.19%; probably will not change much now until the August employment report tomorrow morning.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.19% -3 bp

5 year note: 3.66% -4 bp

2 year note: 3.61% -2 bp

30 year bond: 4.88% -2 b

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 102.22 +7 bp (+15 bp from 9:30 yesterday)

30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 103.66 +3 bp (+13 bp from 9:30 yesterday)

30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 101.96 -1 bp (+6 bp[ from 9:30 yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 148.43 +0.32 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1654 -$0.0008

Dollar Index: 98.25 +0.11

Gold: $3,609.70 -$25.80

Bitcoin: 110,414 -1852

Crude Oil: $63.24 -$0.23

DJIA: 45,320 +49

NASDAQ: 21,539 +41

S&P 500: 6460 +12

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.