CHM Blog

Inventory climbs while new listings retreat

Fall has a way of piling things up, and this year that includes homes for sale.

Realtor.com's Anthony Smith reports that listings are accumulating on the market while fewer sellers jump in to add more. While the market is still drifting toward buyers, a gap is opening between growing inventory and shrinking new listings.

Inventory is the number that stands out. The number of homes for sale rose 6.8% from a year ago, nudging up from last week's 6.7% and marking the fastest weekly growth since late February. It has been building all fall, from around 4% in late August to nearly 7% now, and the year-to-date average is 4.7%.

A wave of new sellers isn't behind it. Buyer activity tends to slow as the season cools, so homes that haven't sold simply stay put and the total climbs. For buyers, that means more choices and a little more leverage. Mortgage rates are still a constraint, especially after last month's Federal Reserve rate hike.

New listings tell the other side of the story. They fell 5.1% from a year ago, the steepest drop since winter, after a brief stretch of gains in late September. Smith points to the mortgage rate surge as a likely reason. Homeowners sitting on loans well below today's rates have one more reason to stay where they are. For the year so far, new listings are roughly flat compared with 2025.

Time on market leveled off. The median home spent 61 days on the market, matching the same week last year. That ends a long run in which homes sold at the same pace or faster than a year earlier, about 20 weeks in a row since late May, which had replaced the slower-than-last-year pattern from early 2026. Smith reads this week's flattening as seasonal cooling rather than a real change in direction. The year-to-date figure is still 2 days slower than 2025, a drag left over from the sluggish start to the year.

Asking prices are moving down faster. The median listing price dropped to $415,000, 2.3% below the same week last year. That's the steepest decline since late July, and a clear step beyond the 1.2% to 1.4% range that held for most of September. Listing prices have now fallen from a year earlier for roughly 39 straight weeks. Price per square foot slipped 1.0%, and the median list price is 2.0% below 2025 levels for the year to date.

Put it together and sellers face a tougher prospect. More homes are competing for buyers, rates limit what those buyers can afford, and Smith notes that pricing discipline matters more than it has in years.

Homes aren't turning over quickly. They're stacking up.

Realtor, TBWS

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up. Tracking these securities real-time is critical. For more information about the rate market, contact me directly. I'm among few mortgage professionals who have access to live trading screens during market hours.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are moving sideways today. The MBS market improved by +44 bps last week. This was enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility last week.

This Week's Rate Forecast: Neutral

These are the three things that have the greatest ability to impact rates this week. 1) Geopolitical, 2) Oil and 3) Debt.

1) Geopolitical: We have lots of geopolitical instability. MBS benefitted greatly from the developments overseas last week.

2) Oil: Swings in oil prices can be very inflationary and deflationary. While the MBS market is not as granularly linked to oil as it was 3 weeks ago, big swings can still have a major impact.

3) Debt: We have an important 20Y Treasury bond auction on Wednesday but we are also watching foreign debt and looks like some corporate bonds may be put on hold.

This Week's Potential Volatility: High

This morning markets started under pressure but have evened out. Volatility has started at moderate to high levels and could easily become high later in the week.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.