CHM Blog

The inflation data reported at 8:30 am ET pushed the 10 year down to 4.95% -7 bps; it couldn’t hold that level and by 11 am the note back to 5.00% -2 bps. MBSs initially increased 23 bps, at 11 am +14 bps. The data was supportive although the long end remains subject at 5.00%. Inflation remains elevated, yesterday Warsh continued his target at 2.0%.

Q3 advance GDP stronger than forecasts, +3.4% against +3.1% expected, personal consumption expenditures for the quarter +3.8% (3.5% estimates).

Weekly jobless claims thought to be 198K reported at 194K, claims continue to impress and close to 60 year lows. Continuing claims, which scales the total size of ongoing unemployment, fell by 21,000 to 1,701,000, reaching their lowest level in more than three years. The data continues to reflect a resilient US labor market.

September PCE inflation data matched the forecasts. Month/month overall +0.5% up from +0.3% in August, year/year +3.6% up from 3.4%; core (ex-food and energy) month/month +0.3% from +0.2%, year/year +3.1% from 3.0% in August.

September personal income estimates month/month were +0.3%, reported +0.2%; personal spending month/month +0.5% as expected.

At 1 pm Treasury will sell $44B of 7 year notes.

PRICES @ 11:00 AM

10 year note: 4.97% -5 bp

5 year note: 4.78% -5 bp

2 year note: 4.64% -6 bp

30 year bond: 5.31% -4 bp

30 year FNMA 6.5: @10 am 101.60 +22 bp (+25 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 6.0: @10 am 99.75 +30 bp (+26 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 6.0: @10 am 101.47 +27 bp (+27 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 157.84 unch yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1156 unch

Dollar Index: 102.16 -0.03

Gold: $4,049 -$9.00

Bitcoin: 81,164 -336

Crude Oil: $100.65 -$2.13

DJIA: 52,294 -181

NASDAQ: 26,140 -409

S&P 500: 7710 -34

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.