November 10th, 2026 8:53 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
CPI inflation was hotter than estimates. CPI rising 0.4% month/month, after a 0.6% increase in September, but above forecasts of 0.3%. Core inflation rose 0.3%, matching the pace recorded in August and September, but above expectations of 0.2%. There weren’t annual rates of change released, the BLS said that it would not report 12-month percentage changes for indexes lacking October 2025 data, due to the federal government shutdown which prevented the collection and publication of CPI data for that month. Forecasts of year/year annual headline and core inflation were 3.9% and 2.8%, respectively, from 3.7% and 2.6% in September.
Shelter costs climbed 0.3%, accounting for more than 30% of the overall increase. Food prices increased 0.5%, driven by higher grocery costs, particularly snacks, meat, fruit and vegetables, and dairy products. Prices for meals away from home advanced 0.5%. Energy prices rose 0.7%, slowing sharply from September’s 5.2% increase, as a 1% rise in gasoline and a 0.9% gain in electricity costs.
The reaction sent MBS prices lower. There has always been the belief the Fed would increase the FF rate at the December FOMC meeting on the 9th by 25 bps. Today’s release likely cements the move however there is a concern circulating the Fed could increase 50 bps. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller speaking in London today said he is leaning toward supporting an interest-rate hike at the Federal Reserve's December meeting, even if upcoming inflation figures show signs of cooling. Furthermore, he explicitly put a larger 50-basis-point interest rate increase on the table if inflation data runs hotter than anticipated. Money markets are pricing around 28 basis points of monetary tightening for the December meeting, with a small chance of the larger, half-point hike that Waller floated earlier.
At 1 pm Treasury auction $42B of 10 year notes, yesterday’s 3 year auction met with soft demand.
Tomorrow is Veteran’s Day, a federal holiday. Banks and the bond markets will be closed. The stock market will trade as usual.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.99% +11 bp
5 year note: 4.82% +12 bp
2 year note: 4.74% +17 bp
30 year bond: 5.35% +7 bp
30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 101.38 -40 bp (-45 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 99.58 -52 bp (-56 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year GNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 101.51 -27 bp (-36 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 158.69 +0.79 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1185 -$0.0040
Dollar Index: 102.08 +0.42
Gold: $4,052 -$63.00
Bitcoin: 74,228 -562
Crude Oil: $84.78 -$2.07
DJIA: 52,121 -269
NASDAQ: 25,178 -75
S&P 500: 7523 -27
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.