October 2nd, 2026 9:05 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
September employment slowed, the unemployment rate increased for the first time in months, wages declined, August jobs were revised lower. The initial reaction to the 8:30 am ET release sent MBS prices higher. The weak data lessens the chance of the Fed increasing rates at the end of the month. Nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000 in September, missing all estimates, while employment figures for the previous two months were revised lower. The unemployment rate also climbed to 4.2%, reinforcing signs of a cooling labor market.
The number of unemployed increased by 78,000 to 7.11 million, while total employment surged by 406,000 to 163.15 million. The labor force expanded by 485,000 to 170.26 million, pushing the labor force participation rate up to 61.8% from 61.6%. The employment-to-population ratio also edged higher to 59.2%. Meanwhile, the broader U-6 unemployment rate, which includes unemployed, underemployed, and marginally attached workers, eased to 7.6% from 7.7%. Average hourly earnings for all employees on US private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 5 cents, or 0.1% over a month to $37.81 in September 2026, after a 0.3% increase in August and below market forecasts of 0.3%.
Another assist for the bond market today, crude oil is down almost $4.00 this morning on a report that EU states were discussing a French proposal to release 50 mil barrels of diesel, alongside a potential 50 mil barrels crude release by IEA members.
The report this morning eases the outlook that the Fed may not increase the FF rate on October 28th, but inflation remains the Fed’s primary emphasis.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 5.20% -4 bp
5 year note: 4.98% -4 bp
2 year note: 4.77% -3 bp
30 year bond: 5.58% -4 bp
30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 100.15 +35 bp (+30 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 98.58 +25 bp (+64 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year GNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 100.87 +21 bp (+49 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 157.61 -0.46 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1261 +$0.0019
Dollar Index: 101.84 -0.26
Gold: $,4.221.80 +$19.50
Bitcoin: 86,871 +2243
Crude Oil: $89.79 +$3.09
DJIA: 51,173 +246
NASDAQ: 27,300 +428
S&P 500: 7741 +75
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.