September 23rd, 2026 11:41 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
This morning the 10 year note is testing its critical 5.0% resistence level.
The recent minor improvement in US bond markets was mostly driven by the drop in oil prices, this morning the price is up slightly. Fed officials following Kevin Warsh’s press conference continue to speak of more rate increases as inflation remains above the Fed’s 2.0% target, currently 3.4%.
MBA reported last week’s mortgage applications. Total applications down 1.5% from the prior week that were down 4.1%. Applications to refinance a mortgage fell by 2.5%, purchase apps were down 1.0% from the previous week.
At 9:45 am preliminary PMI indexes for the manufacturing and service sectors. Manufacturing index expected at 53.6 from 53.9 in August, increased to 57.0. Service sector index estimates were 56.0 from 56.5 in August, jumped to 58.7. The much higher read sent the 10 year over 5.00%.
PRICES @ 10:05 AM
10 year note: 5.04% +6 bp
5 year note: 4.93% +8 bp
2 year note: 4.85% +8 bp
30 year bond: 5.35% +5 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 99.66 -21 bp (-23 bp from 9:30 am yesterday) at 10 am -43 bp -43 from 9:30 am yesterday
30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 97.29 -15 bp (-30 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 99.79 -16 bp (-21 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 158.13 +0.74 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1399 -$0.0052
Dollar Index: 100.87 +0.27
Gold: $4,338.90 -$37.50
Bitcoin: 85,828 -397
Crude Oil: $91.49 +$0.97
DJIA: 51,718 -143
NASDAQ: 27,068 -181
S&P 500: 7735 -30
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.