CHM Blog

This week is heavy with key economic releases. Its employment week.

This week Fed officials are speaking every day, the Fed is very likely to increase the FF rate a month from now at the next FOMC meeting.

With oil higher, the economic calendar loaded with key data points, the technicals bearish there isn’t much improvement expected today. The US fiscal year ends on Thursday.

This Week’s Economic Calendar:

• Monday:

Nothing.

• Tuesday:

September consumer confidence from the Conference Board (90.0 from 89.4), August JOLTS job openings (7.225 million from 7.27 million), July Case/Shiller home price index (month/month +0.2%, year/year 20 cities 2.1%).

• Wednesday:

August PCE inflation month/month +0.4% from +0.2% in July, year/year +3.7% unch from July, core month/month +0.3% from +0.2%, year/year 3.2% down from +3.3% in July, September ADP private jobs (+70K from +38K in August), final Q2 GDP (+1.5%, same as the advance release), August personal income (month/month +0.5% from +0.4%, spending month/month +0.8% from +0.2%), September Chicago purchasing managers index (51.0 from 47.1).

• Thursday:

Weekly jobless claims (200K from 197K), final September PMI manufacturing index 54.8 down from 57.0.

• Friday:

September BLS employment report NFP jobs +90K from +162K, private jobs 75K from 127K, unemployment rate 4.1% unch from August.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 5.23% +6 bp

5 year note: 5.05% +6 bp

2 year note: 4.92% +5 bp

30 year bond: 5.54% +5 bp

30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 100.81 -45 bp (-9 bp from 9:30 Friday)

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 98.35 -53 bp (-13 bp from 9:30 Friday)

30 year GNMA 6.5: @9:30 100.77 -29 bp

Dollar/Yen: 157.10 -0.18 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1370 -$0.0022

Dollar Index: 101.18 +0.21

Gold: $4,178.10 -$143.10

Bitcoin: 83,704 -1017

Crude Oil: $94.30 +$1.89

DJIA: 51,504 -325

NASDAQ: 26,935 -133

S&P 500: 7711 -33

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.