September 24th, 2026 8:49 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
Yesterday preliminary releases for the September purchasing managers indexes for the US and Europe were surprisingly stronger than forecasts, the PMI said overall inflation level the highest since October 2022. Job growth in the PMI surveys rose “at a rate not seen since June 22 and a pace rarely exceeded since comparable data were first available in 2009. The strength in the indexes rattled rates, the 10 year note broke above 5.00% and the buying was on. MBS prices yesterday -88 bps.
This morning more solid data, weekly jobless claims less than expected and at 204K reported at 197K and down 1K from the week before. Another 60-yr low for unemployment filings. Continuing claims, a gauge of outstanding unemployment, rose by only 2,000 to 1,719,000 in the earlier period from the downwardly revised value, remaining close to the lowest in over three years. The BLS data at 4.1% unemployment released three weeks ago is considered full employment by the Fed.
At 10 am August new home sales were expected at 615K from 607K in July, sales reported at 684K.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 5.10% -1 bp
5 year note: 4.98% -2 bp
2 year note: 4.87% -3 bp
30 year bond: 5.39% -1 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 99.02 +5 bp (-64 bps from 9:30 yesterday) @ 10:00 MBSs +10 bps
30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 96.56 +11 bp (-73 bp from 9:30 yesterday)
30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 99.16 +4 bp (-63 bp from 9:30 yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 158.86 +0.53 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1367 -$0.0018
Dollar Index: 101.29 +0.20
Gold: $4,308.90 -$9.50
Bitcoin: 83,3880 -610
Crude Oil: $94.21 +$2.05
DJIA: 51,352 -160
NASDAQ: 26,761 -175
S&P 500: 7682 -24
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.