CHM Blog

This morning the stock indexes in futures trading prior to the 9:30 am ET open were fractionally better. Two major issues this week although the calendar has other data points of interest.

The FOMC meeting begins tomorrow, on Wednesday the Fed policy statement and Fed chair Warsh press conference, there isn’t any expectation the Fed will increase rates at this meeting.

This Week’s Calendar:

• Monday:

1 pm $30 bp 2 year note auction

• Tuesday:

FOMC meeting begins, 8:30 am September durable goods orders (month/month +1.4% from 0.0%), 10 am October consumer confidence index (80.4 from 81.9), 10 am September new home sales (651K from 684K), 1 pm $70B 5 year note auction.

• Wednesday:

7 am weekly MBA mortgage applications, 2 pm FOMC policy statement, 2:30 pm Fed chair press conference.

• Thursday:

8:30 am Q3 GDP advance release (+3.1% from +2.2% in Q2), weekly jobless claims (198K from 194K), September PCE inflation (month/month +0.5% from +0.3%, year/year +3.6% from +3.4%; core month/month +0.3% from +0.2%, year/year +3.1% from 3.0%); September personal income and spending (income month/month +0.3% from +0.2%, spending month/month +0.5% from +0.9%. 1 pm $44B 7 year note auction.

• Friday:

8:30 am Q3 employment cost index (+0.8% from +0.9%). October Chicago purchasing managers index (56.0 from 58.8)

On Thursday expectations are inflation has creped higher from August, it is likely the real numbers will be available to the FOMC on Wednesday although it won’t be evident. Expect the FOMC and Warsh to continue to say that the Fed remains serious in bringing inflation back to 2.0%.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.98% -2 bp

5 year note: 4.81% unch

2 year note: 4.71% +1 bp

30 year bond: 5.30% -2 bp

30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 101.43 +4 bp (-7 bp from 9:30 am Friday)

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 99.46 +8 bp (-4 bp from 9:30 am Friday)

30 year GNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 101.21 +3 bp (-2 bp from 9:30 am Friday)

Dollar/Yen: 157.46 +0.60 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1182 -$0.0021

Dollar Index: 101.97 +0.16

Gold: $4,014 +$6.00

Bitcoin: 79.552 -914

Crude Oil: $101.55 -$1.72

DJIA: 52,462 +247

NASDAQ: 26,086 +70

S&P 500: 7662 +38

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.