September 22nd, 2026 1:05 PM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
Optimism is increasing that a possible deal with Iran may be happening. Crude oil continues to fall with comments from Iran it could open the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if a major deal is reached. Crude price down $4.70 yesterday, this morning down another $2.30. Over the last five days crude price has declined $12.00 to $93.00 from $105,00.
UN speeches begin today. Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Treasury Market Conference begins today with comments from Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, NY Fed President John Williams. Tomorrow Michael Barr, a member of the central bank’s Board of Governors, will speak at a housing affordability summit in Chicago.
There are no major economic reports today. This afternoon at 1 pm Treasury will auction $69B of 2 year notes, the demand will be closely watched. The 2 year note is more sensitive about the Fed policy although we don’t expect a potential increase in the FF rate until the December FOMC meeting, the meeting in September too close to the mid-term elections for the Fed to move. Markets are now pricing in a roughly 90% probability of another rate hike in December, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
At 1 pm $69B 2 year note auction.
There is a lot of news coming this week from meetings taking place at the UN, talks with China’s Xi, and the NY Fed’s Treasury Market Conference.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.96% unch
5 year note: 4.83% unch
2 year note: 4.75% unch
30 year bond: 5.29% unch
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 99.89 +7 bps (+5 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 97.59 +17 bp (+18 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 100.00 +11 bp (+11 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 157.24 -0.13 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1457 -$0.0007
Dollar Index: 100.43 unch
Gold: $4,379.00 -$4.40
Bitcoin: 86,096 -420
Crude Oil: $94.36 -$1.42 (-$2.40 at 8:30)
DJIA: 52,026 -23
NASDAQ: 27,221 +99
S&P 500: 7772 +7
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.