September 16th, 2026 11:32 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
Markets have been preparing for the FOMC and Fed chair Warsh for a week, today at 2 pm ET the policy statement and at 2:30 pm Kevin Warsh’s press conference.
The Fed is expected to increase the FF rate. Recently a growing belief the Fed will increase again possibly by the end of the year.
Weekly MBA mortgage applications last week declined 4.1% from the previous week. It is the sharpest decline in seven weeks, applications to refinance a mortgage fell by 9%, applications to purchase homes declined 1.0%.
August retail sales were stronger than forecasts, up 1.2% against +0.7% expected, excluding auto sales +1.4%, up from -0.2%. Based on that release it adds confirmation the economy remains in decent shape.
August import and export prices increased more than thought pushed by increasing energy prices. Month/month import prices thought to be +0.3% jumped 0.7%, year/year expected at 6.7% increased 7.0% (July -0.3% month/month, year/year +5.9%). Export prices month/month +0.6% against -0.2% forecasts, year/year +8.6% from 8.2% in July.
At 10 am September NAHB housing market index, expected at 34 from 35.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.97% -3 bp
5 year note: 4.79% -4 bp
2 year note: 4.63% -4 bp
30 year bond: 5.35% -2 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 99.71 +19 bp (+13 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 97.28 +16 bp (+18 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 99.99 +11 bp (+8 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 155.28 +0.19 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1536 -$0.0006
Dollar Index: 99.70 +0.08
Gold: $4,385.20 +$52.20
Bitcoin: 75,793 -299
Crude Oil: $103.61 -$2.22
DJIA: 52,013 -80
NASDAQ: 26,138 +156
S&P 500: 7609 +23
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.