CHM Blog

Yesterday’s August PCE inflation report, the headline was inflation was slightly better than estimates. But then the Bureau of Economic Analysis pointed to revisions in the way PCE is calculated rendering the soft PCE meaningless in terms of better inflation. ADP jobs +90K better than forecasts, Q2 GDP at 2.2% stronger than 1.5% estimates.

This morning weekly jobless claims at 8:30 am ET thought to be at 200K, reported at 197K. Weekly claims continue at 60 year lows. Claims reached their lowest level since the 57-year low of 189,000 recorded in mid-July, pointing to continued resilience in the US labor market. Continuing claims fell by 11,000 to 1.701 mil in the week ended September 19, the lowest since April 2023.

One of the major concerns is the global restructuring of rates. Rates in most major economies are increasing right along with the US. Japan’s 10-year yield was last seen at 3.126%, the highest level in three decades. The yield on the German 10-year bund, the benchmark for the euro area, was up 4 basis points at 3.6179% — its highest since 2008. Elsewhere in Europe, the French 10-year popped 11 basis points to 4.9501%, Italy’s 10-year was up 10 basis points to 4.7171%, while the U.K.’s 10-year yield was up 5 basis points to 5.483%.

9:45 am final PMI manufacturing index, 55.6 with estimates at 54.8.

At 10 am September ISM manufacturing index 54.5 unchanged from prelim.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 5.32% +3 bp

5 year note: 5.09% -1 bp

2 year note: 4.86% -4 bp

30 year bond: 5.67% +4 bp

30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 100.45 -4 bp (-28 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 97.91 -10 bp (-39 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 100.38 unch (-23 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 157.95 +0.54 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1291 -$0.0037

Dollar Index: 101.79 +0.34

Gold: $4,193.20 +$6.50

Bitcoin: 83,901 +343

Crude Oil: $91.09 +$0.62

DJIA: 50,683 -224

NASDAQ: 26,808 -53

S&P 500: 7633 -19

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

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MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.