CHM Blog

Mark your calendar, buyers

The week of September 27th is indeed special. Why? Because according to Hannah Jones and Danielle Hale's analysis for Realtor.com, this is the single best week of the year to buy a home.

The reasoning isn't about a magic date so much as a convergence of conditions that rarely line up this well. Realtor.com currently places the national housing market at "balanced" territory, a genuine shift after years of being tilted heavily toward sellers.

Mortgage rates started 2026 drifting downward, giving buyers real optimism, before conflict in Iran pushed oil prices and inflation higher, dragging rates back up through the summer. Rates still sat below year-ago levels for much of the spring, but that progress has largely stalled. Sellers, notably, seem to be adjusting to the new reality rather than fighting it. Prices have eased slightly, suggesting more sellers are pricing realistically from the start rather than listing too high and cutting later. Combine that with the usual fall slowdown, more listings, less competition, a calmer pace, and the numbers point clearly to this specific week.

The first half of 2026 was genuinely volatile. Early rate declines gave way to geopolitical disruption, rising oil prices, and higher financing costs that slowed housing momentum considerably. The labor market held up reasonably well but showed some cooling over the summer, adding to an overall sense of instability. Inventory has tracked above last year's levels throughout 2026, though it remains 11.6% below pre-pandemic norms as of July. Home prices have stayed just below year-ago levels for most of the year, and time on market ran slower than 2025 before converging with last year's pace in June and July.

Regional differences remain stark. The West and South now sit 9.9% and 4.0% above pre-pandemic inventory levels respectively, while the Northeast and Midwest remain deeply undersupplied, 47.0% and 34.4% below those same benchmarks.

Homeowner vacancy edged up slightly to 1.2% in the second quarter, still historically low, as many owners stay locked into low mortgage rates rather than sell and take on a higher one. New construction has slowed too, with both single- and multi-family housing starts declining as builders respond to soft demand and rising existing-home inventory. Progress toward balance is happening, just slowly.

Not every market is cooling at the same pace. Parts of the Midwest and Northeast remain extremely tight, with popular neighborhoods still moving fast and prices climbing even as the national picture softens. This unevenness reflects something researchers are calling a "K-shaped" market: higher-priced homes continue holding firm or even accelerating, while mid-to-low price tiers shrink as more buyers get priced out entirely. In the first five months of the year, home sales under $500,000 fell roughly 10%, compared to a more modest 6.2% decline above that threshold. Sales in the $1 million to $2 million range held up best of all, dipping just 0.6% year over year. This isn't a market slowing down evenly. It's shifting upward.

Entry-level demand data backs this up clearly. In 2021, homes priced under $370,000 made up 50.0% of active listings but attracted 54.2% of buyer views, a real gap showing strong appetite for affordable homes. This year, that appetite has essentially vanished. Views for homes under $370,000 fell 11.4 points to 42.8%, now nearly matching listing share and effectively back in balance. Meanwhile, the luxury segment tells the opposite story, with inventory growing well past pre-pandemic levels while demand per property has held remarkably steady.

For buyers who remain priced out, meaningful change will require sustained income growth, more entry-level construction, or a real drop in rates. But for buyers with financing already in place, conditions right now are genuinely favorable, largely because a meaningful share of competing buyers has already stepped back.

Not every metro lines up with the national calendar. Of the 50 largest U.S. metros, 5 have their best week earlier than the national date, 14 share the exact same week, and 31 see their best week land later. New York and Milwaukee see their prime window arrive earliest, in early September, while Florida and Arizona markets, which skew toward older buyers less tied to the school calendar, often see their best week stretch as late as early December in cities like Miami and Tampa.

The broader takeaway is that this fall genuinely represents the most buyer-friendly stretch the housing market has seen in nearly a decade. Waiting even later into the season could bring softer prices and possibly lower rates, but at the cost of fewer available listings. Buying earlier in the season means a wider selection, potentially at a slightly higher price.

Either way, the report's authors recommend using a mortgage calculator to stress-test a budget against possible rate changes, and setting up local price alerts to stay ahead of new listings matching specific criteria. As always, the right week to buy ultimately depends as much on personal circumstances as it does on market timing.

Realtor, TBWS

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up. Tracking these securities real-time is critical. For more information about the rate market, contact me directly. I'm among few mortgage professionals who have access to live trading screens during market hours.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are getting some support today. The MBS market worsened by -37 bps last week. This was enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility last week.

This Week's Rate Forecast: Neutral

These are the three things that have the greatest ability to impact rates. 1) Geopolitical, 2) The Fed and 3) Treasury Auction.

1) Geopolitical: We have three fronts that will get a lot of attention. 1) Trump Xi Summit, 2) Ukraine Russia talks, and 3) US Iran. All three really focus on energy prices.

2) The Fed: We hear from several Feds this week. The bond market is looking for more details on the hike and projections as well as the "stomach" to actually follow through with hikes to combat Stagflation.

3) Treasury Dump:

09/22 2 year note

09/23 5 year note

09/24 7 year note

This Week's Potential Volatility: High

This morning markets are seeing a recovery from last week. Volatility has started at moderate levels but could spike later this week.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

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