CHM Blog

The buyers who stuck around are the real story

Realtor.com's Jiayi Xu walks us through this week's housing numbers, and the story underneath them is more interesting than the headline suggests.

Prices kept dropping compared to last year, the 31st straight week that's held true, with the median listing price down to $424,500 and price per square foot flat at $224, the lowest mark since spring. The obvious read is a market losing steam. But Xu points to something worth weighing against that: sellers have been pricing more realistically all year rather than chasing last summer's numbers.

A recent report from the company backs this up, showing that even as list prices fall, the median price buyers are actually clicking on and viewing has barely budged from a year ago. That gap does matter. It hints that the buyers still shopping right now aren't bargain hunters waiting out a crash. They're financially qualified people who know their budget and are sticking to it.

Inventory told its own story this week. Active listings climbed toward 1.2 million, the highest count since November 2019, proof that the pandemic-era shortage has largely worked itself out, though supply still trails pre-pandemic norms by a good margin. What's changed isn't just the quantity. It's the mix. Homes priced under $370,000 made up nearly half of all listings back in 2021. Today that share has slipped to 42.2%, according to Realtor.com's 2026 Housing Alignment Report. Entry-level inventory is quietly shrinking as a piece of the pie, even while overall supply grows.

Homes are also moving faster. Days on market held steady, still elevated compared to earlier this year and consistent with the usual late-summer slowdown, but the bigger story is the streak underneath it: 12 straight weeks now where homes have sold at the same pace or quicker than they did a year earlier. That run started in late May. Before that, going all the way back through late 2024, every single week showed homes selling slower than the year before, sometimes by more than seven days. That trend has fully turned around.

New listings pulled back again this week, marking the second consecutive week of year-over-year decline, though the drop was gentler than the week prior. Mortgage rates staying where they are deserves some of the blame here. Plenty of homeowners locked into lower rates years ago are still reluctant to give those up, and that hesitation keeps a real chunk of would-be sellers sitting it out. Year-to-date, new listings remain just a touch behind last year's pace.

Taken together, it's a market where more homes are for sale, buyers left standing are serious ones, and sales are moving quicker than they have in over a year, even as fewer new sellers step forward to join in.

Realtor, TBWS

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up. Tracking these securities real-time is critical. For more information about the rate market, contact me directly. I'm among few mortgage professionals who have access to live trading screens during market hours.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are getting some support today. The MBS market worsened by -32 bps last week. This was enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility last week.

This Week's Rate Forecast: Neutral

These are the things that have the greatest ability to impact rates this week. 1) Geopolitical, 2) Inflation and 3) The Fed.

1) Geopolitical: Oil prices will continue to garner a lot of attention from the long bond market as a tide that lifts all inflation boats.

2) Inflation: We get the Fed's key metric of inflation on Wednesday with headline and Core PCE.

3) The Fed: The 2nd half of the week will see the annual Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, WY. This is actually an official FOMC meeting held by the St. Louis Fed. Fed Chair Warsh will speak Friday.

This Week's Potential Volatility: High

This morning markets are seeing a bounce back from last week's losses. Volatility has started high and could stay that way all week.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

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