CHM Blog

This morning June wholesale prices (PPI) beat forecasts on both core and overall. The year/year core inflation forecasts +0.4% month/month +0.2%, May revised from +0.4% to +0.1%. Overall PPI year/year thought to be +6.2% from +6.5% in May dropped to 5.5%, month/month core +0.1% against estimates of +0.4% and +0.8% in May reported at +0.1%, year/year core unchanged from May at +5.5%.

Initial reaction at 9 am ET, the 10 year note 4.57% -2 bps, the 2 year note 4.17% -4 bps. MBS prices at 9 am +12 bps from yesterday.

Yesterday the Fed chief Warsh appeared optimistic about inflation, saying inflation will be a thing of the past. This morning Warsh completes the required semi-annual testimony to Congress at the Senate Banking Committee.

NY Fed President John Williams today, “There are encouraging reasons to expect that inflation has peaked and should edge down in coming quarters,” “I expect overall inflation to decline to around [3.25%] percent by year-end, then continue on a glide path toward our 2 percent goal in 2027 and land on target in 2028,” there shouldn’t be “significant additional impulse” from tariffs as expiring duties are merely replaced by one ones. At the same time, the oil spike has “likely peaked and will come down closer to levels seen before” the fighting, he said.

Weekly MBA mortgage applications this morning -2.% from -2.2% the prior week. Purchase applications -7.3% from the previous week, re-finance applications increased 3.5%.

The US continuing attacks on Iran, yesterday and again this morning.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.56% -3 bps

5 year note: 4.28% -5 bps

2 year note: 4.16% -5 bps

30 year bond: 5.08% -2 bps

30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 99.90 +10 bps (+27 bps from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.76 +8 bp (+11 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.36 +7 bp (+6 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 162.24 -0.03 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1432 +$0.0011

Dollar Index: 100.85 -0.07

Gold: $4,068.00 -$1.70

Bitcoin: 64,911 +382

Crude Oil: $79.92 +$0.58

DJIA: 52,702 +193

NASDAQ: 26,252 +145

S&P 500: 7572 +28

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.