CHM Blog

Weekly jobless claims last week were better than forecasts, 208K against estimates of 220K. The 4 week average 214.25K down from 219K the previous week. Continuing claims, which are seen as a gauge of outstanding unemployment in the US, fell by 16,000 to 1,805,000 on the week to July 4th, under expectations of 1,820,000. The improvements indicated that the labor market remains robust. Yesterday and Tuesday inflation reports on consumer prices and wholesale prices were lower than forecasts showing inflation slowed in June.

June retail sales expected +0.3%, month/month were +0.2%, ex autos thought to be -0.1%, reported -0.2%. Sales marked the smallest increase in five months, as lower gasoline prices weighed on receipts at gas stations while consumer spending remained resilient in general.

At 10 am July NAHB housing market index was expected unchanged at 35, it dropped to 34. Current sales conditions fell one point to 37. Sales expectations in the next six months dropped two points to 43 and the gauge for traffic of prospective buyers posted a two-point decline to 23. Meanwhile, there were signs of market cooling. 37% of builders cut prices in July, up from 35% in June and 32% in May. The average price reduction was 6% in July, the same rate as the previous month. The use of sales incentives was 63%, up slightly from 62% in June, and marking the 16th consecutive month this share has reached 60% or higher.

Also at 10 am June pending home sales were expected unchanged from May, fell 5.4% month/month. The drop was far steeper than market expectations for a 0.5% decline, with contract signings falling across all four major regions: the Northeast (-3.0%), Midwest (-8.9%), South (-4.1%), and West (-4.7%). Compared with a year earlier, pending home sales slipped 0.3%, reflecting weakness in the South and West.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.58% +3 bp

5 year note: 4.30% +3 bp

2 year note: 4.18% +3 bp

30 year bond: 5.12% +4 bp

30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 99.78 -15 bp (-12 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.70 -9 bp (-6 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.09 -16 bp (-18 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 162.30 +0.11 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1456 -$0.0007

Dollar Index: 100.57 +0.09

Gold: $3,990.80 -$60.60

Bitcoin: 64,157 -771

Crude Oil: $80.02 +$0.42

DJIA: 52,638 -20

NASDAQ: 26,023 -246

S&P 500: 7545 -28

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.