CHM Blog

Prior to 8:30 am ET treasury markets were unchanged from yesterday. At 8:30 am weekly jobless claims for last week, expected at 215K, dropped to 207K, -11K from the previous week, which was the lowest since early February. The 4-week moving average which reduces week-to-week volatility was 209,750, an increase of 500 from the previous week's revised average of 209.25K. Continuing claims increased to 1.818 million +31K from the prior week. Lower weekly claims, higher continuing claims keeps traders uneasy about employment one way or the other.

The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index climbed to 26.7 in April from 18.1 in the prior month, hitting its strongest level since January 2025. The data surprised analysts on the upside, comfortably exceeding expectations for a drop to 10. It isn’t a market-mover.

New York Fed President John Williams expressing concern about the Iran war’s impact on the economy, saying it already has shown signs of hiking prices and slowing growth. “Assuming energy supply disruptions ease reasonably soon, energy prices should come down, and these effects should partially reverse later this year,” Williams said. “However, the conflict could also result in a large supply shock with pronounced effects that simultaneously raises inflation — through a surge in intermediate costs and commodity prices — and dampens economic activity. This has begun to play out already.” The next FOMC meeting, April 28 and 29, no change in rates at the meeting and likely no cuts this year.

Cautious optimism about a deal with Iran continues, the US is blocking Iran imports and exports through the Strait.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.27% -1 bp

5 year note: 3.89% -1 bp

2 year note: 3.77% unch

30 year bond: 4.89% -1 bp

30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 101.02 +4 bp (+4 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 102.38 +8 bp (++9 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 101.12 +9 bp (+5 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 159.05 +0.07 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1780 -$0.0020

Dollar Index: 98.18 +0.13

Gold: $4,839.40 +$15.80

Bitcoin: 74,633 -418

Crude Oil: $92.80 +$1.47

DJIA: 48,432 -31

NASDAQ: 23,915 -101

S&P 500: 7013 -10

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

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MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.