CHM Blog

The winter listing advantage nobody talks about

Home for the holidays with a house to sell? Conventional wisdom says you've already missed the boat. After all, spring and summer are supposedly when homes fly off the market. This year, however, it might be the perfect time to ignore that advice.

According to Realtor.com’s Allaire Conte, this winter's housing market looks very different from last year's sluggish season. Mortgage rates have dropped to 12-month lows, inventory is up from last year, and prices are holding steady nationwide if not dropping here and there when sellers aren’t getting the multiple offers they were once spoiled by. That's creating an unexpected window for sellers brave enough to list when everyone else is waiting it out for spring.

Realtors will readily admit to the traditional concerns about winter listings. Bad weather disrupts showings, and buyers get distracted by holiday plans, and it’s just not fun to have people traipsing through your house when your tree is up.

So what’s making this year different? Buyers who are shopping right now aren't just browsing —they're on a mission. You could call it a collapse of the competitive landscape that creates real opportunity. Winter buyers face hard deadlines—corporate relocations before year-end, school enrollment cutoffs, divorce settlements that need closing before the end of the year. Buyers make decisions quickly, write cleaner offers, and actually close on time.

Another advantage? Right now homes are staying on the market for several months before buyers start wondering if something's wrong. A stigma becomes attached to the listing by the time 4 months rolls along. “List in November or December, and you're perfectly positioned to catch both the urgent end-of-year buyers and the fresh wave of shoppers who return in January and February,” says Conte.

She adds that lenders sweeten the deal as well, often offering better terms as they rush to meet year-end volume targets. Buyers who close before December 31st can capture tax deductions for mortgage interest, points, and prepaid property taxes this year rather than waiting another 12 months.

Conte points out that some properties have an edge right now according to Realtor.com's Investor Report. “In 2024, roughly 13% of home purchases went to investors. These buyers care about tax timing and year-end financial planning, making single-family homes and townhouses particularly attractive in these final weeks.

The key to success, agents agree, is pricing it right from day one. Late-season buyers do their homework and won't overpay. Price both aggressively and realistically can translate into seeing multiple offers come in fast. Of course, the BEST time to list is when you're ready—not when the calendar tells you to.

Realtor, TBWS

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up. Tracking these securities real-time is critical. For more information about the rate market, contact me directly. I'm among few mortgage professionals who have access to live trading screens during market hours.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are under pressure today. The MBS market improved by +26 bps last week. This was enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility last week.

This Week's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Three Things: These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact rates this week. 1) Inflation, 2) ISMs and 3) Jobs.

1) Inflation: We will get the very delayed PCE report on Friday which is the Fed's official measure of inflation just days before their December meeting. The higher this report is, the worse it is for rates and vice-versa.

2) ISMs: These have been a very consistent data set that was not impacted by the government shutdown. Manufacturing is expected to remain in contractionary territory while Services are expected to remain in expansionary territory. Bond traders will focus on Prices Paid and Employment components.

3) Jobs: Normally, we would be getting the BLS Non Farm Payroll report on Friday but it will be delayed until after the FOMC meeting. However, we still all the normal jobs data that leads up to the BLS. We will get Challenger Job Cuts, ADP and Initial Claims.

This Week's Potential Volatility: High

This morning markets have started under very heavy pressure. Volatility has started high and will likely stay that way.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.