CHM Blog

After the delays, this morning at 8:30 am ET two key data releases. September PPI inflation expected +0.3% month/month, reported +0.3%, year/year +2.7% with estimates at +2.6%; core PPI ex food and energy +0.1% against +0.3% expected year/year +2.7% reported +2.6%. September retail sales thought to be +0.4%, +0.2%, ex-vehicles were +0.3% as forecast.

ADP’s new calculations for private job growth released this morning showing further signs of weakening as the pace of layoffs has picked up over the past four weeks, ADP said as part of a running update. Private companies lost an average of 13,500 jobs a week over the past four weeks, an increase from the 2,500 jobs a week lost in the last update a week ago. Powell worries about weakening employment, the report adds a little more to the equation for a cut in December, although other employment releases haven’t confirmed.

Prior to the 8:30 am reports the 10 year note traded down 2 bps from yesterday at 4.02%, on the data the rate declined to 4.01%, MBS price increased 10 bps from yesterday.

There are increasing numbers of Fed officials calling for to cut rates at the December meeting. Employment slowing and while inflation isn’t declining its not increasing based on the recent old data. Today September PPI was reported, the more critical CPI according to what we hear will be released on December 9th, the day the FOMC meeting begins.

At 9 am September Case/Shiller home price index -0.1% as expected, year/year 20 city price +1.4% also as expected.

At 10 am consumer confidence: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index declined by 6.8 points in November to 88.7 (1985=100) from 95.5 in October. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell by 4.3 points to 126.9. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—fell by 8.6 points to 63.2. The Expectations Index has tracked below 80 for ten consecutive months, the threshold under which the gauge signals recession ahead. The cutoff for preliminary results was November 18, 2025.

The benchmark 10 year note is sitting at 4.00%, breaking below 4.00% is difficult. Back in October the note did fall to 3.98% but lasted two days.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.01% -3 bp

5 year note: 3.59% -1 bp

2 year note: 3.49% -1 bp

30 year bond: 4.65% -2 bp

30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 101.20 +8 bp (+12 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 102.34 +6 bp (+7 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 100.99 +3 bp (+8 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 155.98 -0.94 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1572 +$0.0051

Dollar Index: 99.88 -0.27

Gold: $4,117.50 +$23.30

Bitcoin: 86,570 -2578

Crude Oil: $57.56 -$1.28

DJIA: 46,589 +141

NASDAQ: 22,769 -102

S&P 500: 6697 -8

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

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MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.