CHM Blog

The shift buyers were waiting for

Sometimes the stars align in real estate — and right now, they might actually be pointing to buyers in no uncertain terms. According to Realtor.com's Joy Dumandan, the latest Weekly Housing Trends Report, the market is shifting in ways buyers have been hoping for.

Start with rates. Freddie Mac just reported that the average 30-year fixed mortgage fell for the week ending Feb. 26 — to the lowest since September 2022. Compare that to the same week in 2025, and it's no small matter. With spring homebuying season approaching, the timing is everything.

Inventory is also up, though the recovery has slowed. Active listings rose 7.1% year over year, which sounds encouraging until you consider that a year ago, inventory was climbing closer to 30%. Joel Berner, senior economist at Realtor.com, called it "a welcome improvement" but acknowledged the single-digit growth feels underwhelming against the backdrop of the past two years. New-home completions dropped 7.9% in 2025, which means existing homeowner listings will need to kick in. The good news? New listings are up 3.6% year over year and have finally flipped into positive territory for the first time in 2026.

Homes are sitting longer too — the median home spent 68 days on market for the week ending Feb. 21. That's below 70 days for the first time since November, but still 5 days longer than last year. Buyers haven't fully committed yet, even with conditions improving. But it’s certainly a sign that they are now firmly in the driver’s seat.

The headline, however, is price. The median list price fell 2.4% year over year, marking the 18th straight week of flat or negative price growth. It's also the 5th consecutive week where prices are down 2% or more from 2024 levels.

Berner put it plainly: "The price correction we have been anticipating since the pace of sales slowed down and inventory started to recover has finally arrived." Even more telling, the price-per-square-foot metric dropped to -2.4% — a record low — suggesting the decline isn't just a shift toward smaller homes. Prices are genuinely falling.

For buyers who've been watching and waiting, the data is heading in the right direction. And the stars aren’t getting anything but brighter.

Realtor, TBWS

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up. Tracking these securities real-time is critical. For more information about the rate market, contact me directly. I'm among few mortgage professionals who have access to live trading screens during market hours.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are under pressure today. The MBS market improved by +19 bps last week. This was not enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced moderate volatility last week.

This Week's Rate Forecast: Neutral

These are the three things that have the greatest ability to impact rates this week. 1) Geopolitical, 2) Jobs, and 3) ISM.

1) Geopolitical: Now that the hammer has dropped on Iran, (which the bond market had already largely accounted for), the bond market will focus on oil prices and length of the conflict.

2) Jobs: We have seemingly been stuck in a low hire but low fire trend. Last month's NFP saw significant revisions downward to the tune of 1M and made the average for 2025 only 15K jobs per month.

3) ISM: ISM Manufacturing was solid when last released and is expected to see another expansionary data point. The bond market will be focusing on the PMIs but really looking at Prices Paid.

This Week's Potential Volatility: High

This morning markets have started under pressure due to rising oil costs. Volatility has started high and will likely stay that way all week.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

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