February 27th, 2026 8:49 AM by Richard Sardella MLO.100007700/NMLS 233568
The 10 year note broke below 4.00% last night, traders worrying about the impact of AI on employment and the tensions in the mid-east. The note last broke below 4.00% on October 16th 2025, it traded below it for five days before crawling back above the key technical pivot. Also helping, the weakness in equity markets.
January PPI data was stronger than expected. Month/month overall PPI +0.5% from +0.4% in December, year/year expected +2.9% from 3.0% in December with estimates at 2.6%. Core month/month PPI thought to be +0.3% increased 0.7%, year/year core estimates reported at +4.2 from +3.7% in December. There was no pullback in treasuries on the higher wholesale prices.
At 9:45 am February Chicago purchasing managers index thought to be at 52.5 increased to 57.7.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 3.98% -3 bp
5 year note: 3.54% -4 bp
2 year note: 3.41% -3 bp
30 year bond: 4.64% -2 bp
30 year FNMA 5.0: @9:30 am 100.46 +11 bp (+12 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 101.57 unch (+2 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year GNMA 5.0: @9:30 am 100.34 +5 bp (+6 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 155.98 -0.15 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1814 +$0.0013
Dollar Index: 97.68 -0.11
Gold: $5,238.80 +$44.60
Bitcoin: 65,931 -1483
Crude Oil: $67.20 +$1.99
DJIA: 48,762 -737
NASDAQ: 22,558 -221
S&P 500: 6854 -54
Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.