CHM Blog

At 8:30 am ET weekly jobless claims were lower than forecasts at 198K claims against estimates of 212K, -9K from the previous week. Weekly claims the lowest in two years. Continuing claims fell by 19,000 to 1,884,000 at the turn of the year, in line with market expectations, to extend the decreasing trend since October. Based on comments from J Powell and a few other Fed officials employment was expected to worsen, so far not the case; same goes for inflation, while not slowing inflation is not increasing.

More old data; US import prices rose 0.1% year-over-year in November 2025, according to delayed data from the BLS. Figures for October were unavailable due to last fall’s US government shutdown. Export prices increased 0.5% over the two months through November 2025, after being unchanged in September.

The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index in the US jumped to 7.7 from a revised -3.7 in December, beating forecasts of 1. The reading showed business activity in New York state rose modestly, as new orders increased, and shipments grew at a solid pace.

January Philadelphia Fed business index expected -3, from -8.8 in December jumped to +12.6, the highest since last September.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +191, NASDAQ +199, S&P +42. 10 year 4.14% unchanged. FNMA 5.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +4 bps from yesterday’s close and +10 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.

All scheduled data today is out, any significant news from the White House, Congress though the rest of the day will nudge traders, otherwise it will be another quiet session.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.15% +1 bp

5 year note: 3.75% +4 bp

2 year note: 3.55% +3 bp

30 year bond: 4.78% unch

30 year FNMA 5.0: @9:30 am 100.31 +4 bp (+10 bps from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 101.48 +4 bp (+10 bps from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 5.0: @9:30 am 100.12 +1 bp (+6 bps from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 158.79 +0.33 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1598 -$0.0047

Dollar Index: 99.41 +0.28

Gold: $4,609.80 -$25.90

Bitcoin: 95,842 -1824

Crude Oil: $59.09 -$2.93 (less Iran concerns)

DJIA: 49,310 +161

NASDAQ: 23,656 +185

S&P 500: 6964 +37

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.