CHM Blog

This morning weekly jobless claims were better than was forecasted at 216K. Estimates were for 225K, down from 222K the previous week. The 4 week average at 233.75K, down from 224.75K. Continuing claims increased by 7K. Although better than last week employment remains slow and keeps the Fed on course to lower their key rate on December 10th.

Old data, durable goods orders. September orders expected at +0.1%, increased 0.5%. Ex-transportation thought to be 0.0%, increased 0.6%.

The two 8:30 am ET releases pushed the 10 year note rate up 2 bps to 4.02%, yesterday the note declined 3 bps to end at 4.00%, the level that continues to find resistance. Yesterday the stock indexes had a good day, this morning in futures trading prior to 9:30 am the indexes continued their improvement.

MBA reported weekly that mortgage applications increased 0.2% last week after falling 5.2% the week before. Purchase applications increased 7.6% compared to the week before, refinance applications -5.7% after dropping 7.3%.

US debt continues to increase, yesterday Treasury reported the beginning of the US 2026 fiscal year, October, the deficit increased $284B for the month.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +181, NASDAQ +151, S&P +33. 10 year note at 9:30 am 4.03% +3 bps. FNMA 5.5 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -3 bps from yesterday’s close and +2 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.

At 9:45 am November Chicago purchasing managers index thought to be 44.3 plummeted to 36.3, the lowest in months.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.04% +4 bp

5 year note: 3.61% +4 bp

2 year note: 3.51% +4 bp

30 year bond: 4.68% +3 bp

30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 101.22 -3 bp (+2 bp from 9:30 yesterday)

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 102.36 -1 bp (+2 bp from 9:30 yesterday)

30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 101.03 -3 bp (+4 bp from 9:30 yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 156.56 +0.50 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1580 +$0.0008

Dollar Index: 99.81 +0.14

Gold: $4,185.40 +$45.40

Bitcoin: 87,266 -108

Crude Oil: $58.01 +$0.07

DJIA: 47,260 +148

NASDAQ: 23,081 +55

S&P 500: 6787 +21

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.