CHM Blog

Markets began quietly this morning.

MBA reported mortgage applications heated up last week. Mortgage applications in the US surged by 28.5% from the previous week in the second full week of January, rebounding from three consecutive periods of declines. Mortgage applications surged by 28.5% from the previous week in the second full week of January. It was the sharpest increase since September as mortgage rates are at the lowest level in 15 month. Applications for contracts to refinance a mortgage, which are sensitive to short-term changes, surged by 40% from the previous week. Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home rose by 16.9%.

Some inflation data still lags, this morning the November producer price index. Month/month overall PPI expected +0.3% released at +0.2%, year/year though thought to be +2.7% increased 3.0%. The core, ex food and energy, +0.2% up from 0.1% in October; year/year core increased from +2.6% in October to 3.0%.

Another lagging data point, November retail sales. Month/month estimates +0.2%, increased 0.6%, ex vehicles forecasts +0.3%, increased 0.5%. The largest increases were in sales for sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, & book stores (1.9%); miscellaneous store retailers (1.7%); gasoline stations (1.4%); building material and garden equipment suppliers (1.3%); motor vehicle & parts dealers (1%); clothing stores (0.9%); food services & drinking places (0.6%); non-store retailers (0.4%); health & personal care stores (0.3%); and food & beverage stores (0.1%). On the other hand, sales were flat at general merchandise and electronics & appliance stores and fell 0.1% at furniture stores. Meanwhile, sales excluding food services, auto dealers, building materials stores and gasoline stations, which are used to calculate GDP, rose 0.4%, following a 0.6% gain in October, in line with expectations.

The Q3 current account narrowed by $22.8B, or 9.2%, to $226.4B in the third quarter of 2025, more than market expectations of a $238B deficit. The primary account swung to a surplus of $5.2B from a deficit of $5.8B and the secondary income deficit narrowed slightly to $53.5B from $53.6B.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened -15, NASDAQ -163, S&P -30. 10 year at 9:30 am 4.16% -2 bps. FNMA 5.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +9 bps from yesterday’s close and +5 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.

At 10 am December existing home sales, estimates at 4.230 million, hit at 4.35 million, +5.1%, year/year +1.4%.

This afternoon at 2 pm the Fed will release its Beige Book, details from the 12 Fed districts.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.18% -1 bp

5 year note: 3.72% -2 bp

2 year note: 3.47% -1 bp

30 year bond: 4.87% unch

30 year FNMA 5.0: @9:30 am 99.69% +5 bp (-10 bp from 9:30 am Friday)

30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 101.43 +5 bp (-6 bp from 9:30 am Friday)

30 year GNMA 5.0: @9:30 am 99.73 +5 bp (-8 bp from 9:30 am Friday)

Dollar/Yen: 156.76 -0.07 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1683 -$0.0038

Dollar Index: 98.69 +0.27

Gold: $4,434.70 +$105.40 (safety move)

Bitcoin: 93,265 +1994

Crude Oil: $58.05 +$0.73

DJIA: 48,922 +553

NASDAQ: 23,401 +166

S&P 500: 6898 +40

Richard Sardella has been actively managing and providing services in the mortgage industry for over 30 years. Richard serves on the board of directors as President of Colorado Home Mortgages Inc.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

MLO of record MLO.100007700 / NMLS#233568 / CHM NMLS#127716.